UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
Saturday, October 1, 2011·Washington, DC, USA
Model Record: 7/10Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
BantamweightMISS
Dominick Cruz won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Cruz 44%56% Johnson
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -65(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Cruz)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.1(favors Johnson)
HeavyweightHIT
Stefan Struve won by Submission (R2)
Struve 74%26% Barry
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +77(favors Struve)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Struve)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.5(favors Struve)
WelterweightHIT
Anthony Johnson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Johnson 72%28% Brenneman
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +68(favors Johnson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.1(favors Brenneman)
LightweightHIT
Matt Wiman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Wiman 74%26% Danzig
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +90(favors Wiman)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.3(favors Wiman)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Wiman)
LightweightHIT
Yves Edwards won by KO/TKO (R2)
Edwards 64%36% Oliveira
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +138(favors Edwards)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.8(favors Oliveira)
LightweightHIT
Paul Sass won by Submission (R1)
Sass 58%42% Johnson
LEAN
→Elo gap: +4(favors Sass)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Johnson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Johnson)
BantamweightMISS
Mike Easton won by KO/TKO (R2)
Easton 48%52% Bloodworth
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Bloodworth)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Bloodworth)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Bloodworth)
LightweightHIT
TJ Grant won by Submission (R3)
Grant 64%36% Roller
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Roller)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Roller)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.4(favors Grant)
WelterweightHIT
Josh Neer won by KO/TKO (R2)
Neer 59%41% Wisniewski
LEAN
→Elo gap: +117(favors Neer)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Neer)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Wisniewski)
BantamweightMISS
Walel Watson won by KO/TKO (R1)
Watson 47%53% Sandoval
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -0(favors Sandoval)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.0(favors Sandoval)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Sandoval)