UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Renato Moicano (12-6) taking on Benoit Saint Denis (8-3).

Denis is rated at 1743 — 201 points above Moicano's 1542. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Denis has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Moicano looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Denis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Moicano the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Denis throws significantly more leather — a 4.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Denis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Moicano has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Moicano over Benoit Saint Denis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Moicano at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nassourdine Imavov (8-2) taking on Brendan Allen (13-4).

Imavov is rated at 1876 — 180 points above Allen's 1696. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Imavov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Imavov is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Allen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Allen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imavov throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Allen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Imavov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nassourdine Imavov over Brendan Allen. The model gives Imavov a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features William Gomis (4-1) taking on Joanderson Brito (5-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Gomis.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Gomis at 1279, Brito at 1283. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Gomis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Brito is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Brito the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brito throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Brito is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Gomis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joanderson Brito over William Gomis. The model gives Brito a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Bryan Battle (6-1) taking on Kevin Jousset (2-1).

Battle is rated at 1469 — 485 points above Jousset's 984. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jousset throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jousset is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jousset has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bryan Battle over Kevin Jousset. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Battle at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Morgan Charriere (3-2) taking on Gabriel Miranda (1-2). Miranda is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Charriere is rated at 1168 — 367 points above Miranda's 802. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Charriere throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Miranda is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Charriere has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Morgan Charriere over Gabriel Miranda. We're leaning Charriere here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Fares Ziam (7-2) taking on Matt Frevola (5-5-1). Ziam is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Ziam is rated at 1556 — 463 points above Frevola's 1093. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Ziam rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Ziam's all-rounder game against Frevola's knockout artist approach. Ziam is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Frevola is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Frevola throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Frevola is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Ziam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Frevola over Fares Ziam. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Frevola at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ion Cutelaba (8-9-1) taking on Ivan Erslan (0-2). Cutelaba will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cutelaba is rated at 1147 — 312 points above Erslan's 834. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cutelaba throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cutelaba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Erslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ion Cutelaba over Ivan Erslan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cutelaba at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Oumar Sy (2-1) taking on Da Woon Jung (4-3-1). Sy will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Sy is rated at 1201 — 222 points above Jung's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jung throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sy is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Da Woon Jung over Oumar Sy. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jung at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Ludovit Klein (7-3-1) taking on Roosevelt Roberts (4-4). There's a 7-inch height gap favoring Roberts.

Klein is rated at 1364 — 479 points above Roberts's 885. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Klein's striker game against Roberts's wrestler approach. Klein brings a versatile approach, while Roberts looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Klein throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Klein is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Klein has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ludovit Klein over Roosevelt Roberts. The model is firm on this one: Klein at 85%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Taylor Lapilus (5-2) taking on Vince Morales (3-7). Lapilus will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lapilus is rated at 1238 — 386 points above Morales's 852. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lapilus's all-rounder game against Morales's striker approach. Lapilus is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Morales brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lapilus throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morales is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Lapilus has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Taylor Lapilus over Vince Morales. We're leaning Lapilus here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Daria Zhelezniakova (1-1). Zhelezniakova is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Perez is rated at 1291 — 180 points above Zhelezniakova's 1111. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Zhelezniakova throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.2 more per 15 minutes. Zhelezniakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ailin Perez over Daria Zhelezniakova. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Perez at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Daniel Barez (1-1) taking on Victor Altamirano (2-3). Altamirano is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Barez carries a modest Elo edge (916 to 837), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Barez throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Altamirano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Barez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Altamirano over Daniel Barez. We're leaning Altamirano here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Jacqueline Cavalcanti (4-0) taking on Nora Cornolle (3-2). Cavalcanti will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Cavalcanti is rated at 1291 — 264 points above Cornolle's 1027. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Cavalcanti rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cavalcanti throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Cornolle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cavalcanti has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacqueline Cavalcanti over Nora Cornolle. The model gives Cavalcanti a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Duncan (5-1) taking on Bolaji Oki (2-1).

Duncan is rated at 1375 — 454 points above Oki's 921. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Duncan rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Duncan throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Duncan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Oki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bolaji Oki over Chris Duncan. The model gives Oki a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.