UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger
Saturday, September 17, 2011·New Orleans, Louisiana, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
WelterweightHIT
Jake Ellenberger won by KO/TKO (R1)
Ellenberger 77%23% Shields
STRONG
Submission Artist vs Striker — Submission Artist wins 52% historically
→Elo gap: +270(favors Ellenberger)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Shields)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.7(favors Ellenberger)
MiddleweightHIT
Court McGee won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
McGee 68%32% Yang
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +114(favors McGee)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.3(favors Yang)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.8(favors McGee)
FeatherweightMISS
Erik Koch won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Koch 43%57% Brookins
LEAN
→Elo gap: +43(favors Koch)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.6(favors Brookins)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Brookins)
MiddleweightHIT
Alan Belcher won by KO/TKO (R1)
Belcher 63%37% MacDonald
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +415(favors Belcher)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.2(favors Belcher)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.6(favors MacDonald)
LightweightMISS
Vagner Rocha won by Submission (R2)
Rocha 36%64% McKenzie
LEAN
→Elo gap: -43(favors McKenzie)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Rocha)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.9(favors McKenzie)
LightweightMISS
Evan Dunham won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dunham 48%52% Bailey
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +86(favors Dunham)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Dunham)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Bailey)
WelterweightMISS
Lance Benoist won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Benoist 43%57% Riddle
LEAN
→Elo gap: -90(favors Riddle)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Riddle)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.0(favors Riddle)
BantamweightHIT
Ken Stone won by Submission (R1)
Stone 55%45% Walker
LEAN
→Elo gap: -43(favors Walker)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Stone)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Walker)
WelterweightHIT
Seth Baczynski won by Submission (R2)
Baczynski 56%44% Harvison
LEAN
→Elo gap: -153(favors Harvison)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.3(favors Harvison)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.0(favors Harvison)
WelterweightHIT
TJ Waldburger won by Submission (R1)
Waldburger 67%33% Stumpf
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +15(favors Waldburger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.4(favors Waldburger)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.4(favors Waldburger)
FeatherweightHIT
Robert Peralta won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Peralta 62%38% Lullo
LEAN
→Elo gap: +128(favors Peralta)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Lullo)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Lullo)
WelterweightHIT
Justin Edwards won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Edwards 55%45% Lopez
LEAN
→Elo gap: -68(favors Lopez)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.8(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +7.0(favors Edwards)