UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Jake Shields (4-2). St-Pierre will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 790 points above Shields's 1232. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is St-Pierre's wrestler game against Shields's striker approach. St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shields brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Jake Shields. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 80%.

The Featherweight championship matchup features Jose Aldo (14-8) taking on Mark Hominick (3-3).

Aldo is rated at 1420 — 578 points above Hominick's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hominick throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hominick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hominick over Jose Aldo. The model gives Hominick a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Lyoto Machida (15-8) taking on Randy Couture (16-7).

Machida is rated at 1493 — 245 points above Couture's 1248. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Machida is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Couture the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Machida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lyoto Machida over Randy Couture. The model gives Machida a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Jason Brilz (3-3). Matyushenko will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 182 points above Brilz's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brilz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Matyushenko has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Jason Brilz. The model gives Matyushenko a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Benson Henderson (10-3) taking on Mark Bocek (7-5). Bocek will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Henderson is rated at 1507 — 276 points above Bocek's 1230. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Henderson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bocek is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bocek the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bocek throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Henderson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Bocek over Benson Henderson. We're leaning Bocek here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Rory MacDonald (9-3) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11).

There's a real Elo separation here: Diaz at 1557 versus MacDonald at 1465. That 92-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: MacDonald is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Diaz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Diaz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. MacDonald is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Diaz over Rory MacDonald. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jake Ellenberger (10-10) taking on Sean Pierson (3-2). Pierson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Pierson is rated at 1239 — 392 points above Ellenberger's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pierson throws significantly more leather — a 5.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ellenberger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jake Ellenberger over Sean Pierson. We're leaning Ellenberger here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Claude Patrick (3-0) taking on Daniel Roberts (3-3).

Patrick is rated at 1210 — 237 points above Roberts's 974. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Patrick rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Patrick throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Daniel Roberts over Claude Patrick. The model gives Roberts a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Ivan Menjivar (4-4) taking on Charlie Valencia (0-0). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Menjivar.

Menjivar carries a modest Elo edge (895 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Menjivar throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Valencia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Valencia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ivan Menjivar over Charlie Valencia. The model gives Menjivar a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

MacDonald carries a modest Elo edge (831 to 759), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jensen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jason MacDonald over Ryan Jensen. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward MacDonald at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Kyle Watson (1-0).

Makdessi carries a modest Elo edge (989 to 949), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Makdessi throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Watson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Makdessi over Kyle Watson. We're leaning Makdessi here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Pablo Garza (3-2) taking on Yves Jabouin (5-4). Garza is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Garza at 938 versus Jabouin at 845. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Garza's wrestler game against Jabouin's striker approach. Garza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Jabouin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garza throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Jabouin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jabouin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pablo Garza over Yves Jabouin. We're leaning Garza here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.