UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Phil Davis (9-2) taking on Rogerio Nogueira (6-6). Davis will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Davis is rated at 1427 — 285 points above Nogueira's 1142. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Davis looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Nogueira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Phil Davis over Rogerio Nogueira. The model is firm on this one: Davis at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Anthony Johnson (13-5) taking on Dan Hardy (5-4). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Johnson is rated at 1708 — 446 points above Hardy's 1262. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Johnson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Johnson over Dan Hardy. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Amir Sadollah (6-4) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Johnson.

There's a real Elo separation here: Sadollah at 946 versus Johnson at 841. That 105-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Sadollah is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Johnson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Johnson the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sadollah throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sadollah is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Sadollah has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amir Sadollah over DaMarques Johnson. The model gives Sadollah a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Chan Sung Jung (7-4) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6). Jung will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jung is rated at 1528 — 859 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Jung has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chan Sung Jung over Leonard Garcia. The model gives Jung a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Russow (4-1) taking on Jon Madsen (4-0).

Madsen carries a modest Elo edge (1098 to 1027), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Madsen has won 4 straight.

A few statistical edges stand out. Madsen throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Russow is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Madsen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Russow over Jon Madsen. The model gives Russow a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Mackens Semerzier (1-0) taking on Alex Caceres (16-12).

Caceres is rated at 1232 — 232 points above Semerzier's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Caceres throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Caceres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Caceres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alex Caceres over Mackens Semerzier. The model gives Caceres a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features John Hathaway (7-1) taking on Kris McCray (0-2).

Hathaway is rated at 1241 — 440 points above McCray's 801. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hathaway rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hathaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hathaway is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hathaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: John Hathaway over Kris McCray. The model is firm on this one: Hathaway at 76%.

The Bantamweight matchup features Michael McDonald (6-2) taking on Edwin Figueroa (2-3).

McDonald is rated at 1193 — 339 points above Figueroa's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Figueroa throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Figueroa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Figueroa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael McDonald over Edwin Figueroa. The model gives McDonald a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Christian Morecraft (1-2) taking on Sean McCorkle (1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morecraft at 858, McCorkle at 866. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morecraft throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. McCorkle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. McCorkle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Morecraft over Sean McCorkle. We're leaning Morecraft here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Johny Hendricks (13-7) taking on TJ Waldburger (4-3). Waldburger is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Hendricks carries a modest Elo edge (1068 to 1008), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hendricks throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hendricks is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Hendricks has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: TJ Waldburger over Johny Hendricks. The model gives Waldburger a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Aaron Simpson (7-3) taking on Mario Miranda (1-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Miranda.

There's a real Elo separation here: Simpson at 1097 versus Miranda at 985. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Simpson throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Simpson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Simpson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Aaron Simpson over Mario Miranda. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Simpson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Nik Lentz (14-8-1) taking on Waylon Lowe (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lentz at 1159 versus Lowe at 1025. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lentz throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lentz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Lentz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nik Lentz over Waylon Lowe. The model is firm on this one: Lentz at 77%.