UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Evan Dunham (11-8-1).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 158 points above Dunham's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guillard's striker game against Dunham's wrestler approach. Guillard brings a versatile approach, while Dunham looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dunham throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dunham is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Evan Dunham. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guillard at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Matt Mitrione (9-4) taking on Tim Hague (1-3). Mitrione will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mitrione is rated at 1200 — 381 points above Hague's 819. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitrione throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Hague is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Mitrione has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Mitrione over Tim Hague. The model gives Mitrione a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Mark Hominick (3-3) taking on George Roop (5-7). Roop is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Roop carries a modest Elo edge (881 to 842), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hominick throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Roop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Hominick has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hominick over George Roop. We're leaning Hominick here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pat Barry (5-6) taking on Joey Beltran (3-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Barry at 910 versus Beltran at 815. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Barry is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Beltran brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Barry the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beltran throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Beltran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Barry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joey Beltran over Pat Barry. The model gives Beltran a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Cole Miller (10-8). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wiman at 868, Miller at 891. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Wiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Cole Miller. The model gives Wiman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Cody McKenzie (3-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring McKenzie.

McKenzie carries a modest Elo edge (871 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. McKenzie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. McKenzie has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody McKenzie over Yves Edwards. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward McKenzie at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features DaMarques Johnson (4-5) taking on Mike Guymon (1-2).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Johnson at 841, Guymon at 823. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guymon throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Guymon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Guymon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Guymon over DaMarques Johnson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Guymon at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Rani Yahya (13-5-1) taking on Mike Brown (2-3). Brown will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Yahya carries a modest Elo edge (1030 to 982), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Yahya's wrestler game against Brown's striker approach. Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Brown brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Brown is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rani Yahya over Mike Brown. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Yahya at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Waylon Lowe (2-1) taking on Willamy Freire (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Lowe at 1025 versus Freire at 914. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lowe throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lowe is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Freire has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Waylon Lowe over Willamy Freire. The model gives Lowe a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Charlie Brenneman (4-6) taking on Amilcar Alves (0-1).

Alves is rated at 874 — 157 points above Brenneman's 717. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brenneman throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Brenneman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Brenneman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charlie Brenneman over Amilcar Alves. We're leaning Brenneman here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Cariaso (7-5) taking on Will Campuzano (0-3). Campuzano is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Cariaso is rated at 931 — 167 points above Campuzano's 763. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Campuzano throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Campuzano is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Cariaso has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Will Campuzano over Chris Cariaso. The model gives Campuzano a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.