UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9). St-Pierre will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1082 points above Koscheck's 939. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Koscheck is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving St-Pierre the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. St-Pierre throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Josh Koscheck. The model is firm on this one: St-Pierre at 79%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Stefan Struve (13-10) taking on Sean McCorkle (1-1). Struve is the bigger frame at 6'11" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Struve at 878, McCorkle at 866. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Struve throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Struve is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. McCorkle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stefan Struve over Sean McCorkle. The model is firm on this one: Struve at 83%.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Charles Oliveira (23-11). Oliveira is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Oliveira is rated at 1846 — 633 points above Miller's 1213. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Oliveira is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Charles Oliveira. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Mac Danzig (5-7) taking on Joe Stevenson (8-7).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Danzig at 920, Stevenson at 907. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Stevenson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Danzig has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Mac Danzig. We're leaning Stevenson here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on John Howard (7-6).

Howard carries a modest Elo edge (932 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Alves's striker game against Howard's wrestler approach. Alves brings a versatile approach, while Howard looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.6 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over John Howard. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on Joe Doerksen (2-6).

Doerksen carries a modest Elo edge (925 to 886), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Doerksen throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Doerksen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Miller over Joe Doerksen. We're leaning Miller here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Mark Bocek (7-5) taking on Dustin Hazelett (5-4). There's a 5-inch height gap favoring Hazelett.

Bocek is rated at 1230 — 257 points above Hazelett's 973. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Bocek looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bocek the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Bocek is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Bocek has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Bocek over Dustin Hazelett. We're leaning Bocek here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jesse Bongfeldt (0-0-1) taking on Rafael Natal (9-6-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bongfeldt at 928, Natal at 931. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Natal throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Natal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Bongfeldt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rafael Natal over Jesse Bongfeldt. The model gives Natal a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Pierson (3-2) taking on Matthew Riddle (7-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pierson at 1239 versus Riddle at 1158. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Pierson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Riddle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Riddle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riddle throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Riddle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Pierson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matthew Riddle over Sean Pierson. We're leaning Riddle here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ricardo Almeida (6-4) taking on TJ Grant (7-3). Almeida is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Grant is rated at 1640 — 451 points above Almeida's 1189. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Grant has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grant throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Almeida over TJ Grant. We're leaning Almeida here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features John Makdessi (11-8) taking on Pat Audinwood (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Makdessi at 989 versus Audinwood at 841. That 148-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Audinwood throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Audinwood is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Makdessi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pat Audinwood over John Makdessi. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Audinwood at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.