UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Saturday, December 6, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 8/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Bantamweight✗
Petr Yan won by Decision - Unanimous (R5)
Yan 27%73% Dvalishvili
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -281(favors Dvalishvili)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.4(favors Yan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.4(favors Dvalishvili)
Flyweight✓
Joshua Van won by KO/TKO (R1)
Van 61%39% Pantoja
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: -215(favors Pantoja)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.6(favors Van)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.0(favors Pantoja)
Flyweight✗
Tatsuro Taira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Taira 48%52% Moreno
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: -146(favors Moreno)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Moreno)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Taira)
Bantamweight✓
Payton Talbott won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Talbott 54%46% Cejudo
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -288(favors Cejudo)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Talbott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.8(favors Cejudo)
Light Heavyweight
Blachowicz 53%47% Guskov
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +129(favors Blachowicz)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Guskov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.6(favors Blachowicz)
Lightweight✗
Manuel Torres won by KO/TKO (R1)
Torres 37%63% Dawson
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs Wrestler — Knockout Artist wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -278(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.9(favors Torres)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.7(favors Dawson)
Lightweight✗
Chris Duncan won by Submission (R1)
Duncan 50%50% McKinney
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Submission Artist — All-Rounder wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: +115(favors Duncan)
→Striking volume advantage: -15.0(favors McKinney)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors McKinney)
Women's Flyweight✓
Maycee Barber won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Barber 62%38% Silva
LEAN
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +238(favors Barber)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Barber)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Silva)
Lightweight✓
Fares Ziam won by KO/TKO (R2)
Ziam 73%27% Sadykhov
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +82(favors Ziam)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Sadykhov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.8(favors Ziam)
Middleweight✓
Brunno Ferreira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Ferreira 51%49% Vettori
TOSS-UP
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -190(favors Vettori)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.5(favors Vettori)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Ferreira)
Lightweight✓
Jalin Turner won by KO/TKO (R1)
Turner 64%36% Barboza
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Barboza)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Turner)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.2(favors Barboza)
Light Heavyweight✗
Iwo Baraniewski won by KO/TKO (R1)
Baraniewski 47%53% Aslan
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +69(favors Baraniewski)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.8(favors Aslan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Aslan)
Middleweight✓
Mansur Abdul-Malik won by Submission (R1)
Abdul-Malik 76%24% Trocoli
STRONG
→Elo gap: +353(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.5(favors Abdul-Malik)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Abdul-Malik)
Featherweight✓
Mairon Santos won by KO/TKO (R3)
Santos 58%42% Naimov
LEAN
→Elo gap: +36(favors Santos)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.3(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.4(favors Naimov)