UFC 100: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Jon Fitch (14-2-1) taking on Paulo Thiago (5-7).

Fitch is rated at 1398 — 586 points above Thiago's 811. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Fitch looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Thiago is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Fitch the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fitch throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Fitch is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Thiago has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Fitch over Paulo Thiago. The model gives Fitch a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Brock Lesnar (4-3) taking on Frank Mir (16-10).

Mir carries a modest Elo edge (1252 to 1191), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Lesnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Mir is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lesnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Lesnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Lesnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brock Lesnar over Frank Mir. The model gives Lesnar a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight championship matchup features Georges St-Pierre (19-2) taking on Thiago Alves (15-11). St-Pierre is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

St-Pierre is rated at 2022 — 1121 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. St-Pierre rides a 12-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is St-Pierre's wrestler game against Alves's striker approach. St-Pierre looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Alves brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. St-Pierre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. St-Pierre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Georges St-Pierre over Thiago Alves. We're leaning St-Pierre here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Dan Henderson (9-8) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Bisping at 1522 versus Henderson at 1404. That 118-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Henderson's wrestler game against Bisping's striker approach. Henderson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Bisping brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Dan Henderson. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yoshihiro Akiyama (2-4) taking on Alan Belcher (9-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Belcher.

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 308 points above Akiyama's 985. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Akiyama's all-rounder game against Belcher's knockout artist approach. Akiyama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Belcher is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belcher throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Belcher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Akiyama has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Belcher over Yoshihiro Akiyama. The model gives Belcher a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Mark Coleman (7-4) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6). Bonnar is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 283 points above Coleman's 995. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Coleman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Coleman throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Coleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Bonnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Mark Coleman. We're leaning Bonnar here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on Mac Danzig (5-7).

Miller is rated at 1213 — 294 points above Danzig's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Miller's knockout artist game against Danzig's all-rounder approach. Miller is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Danzig is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Danzig throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jim Miller over Mac Danzig. We're leaning Miller here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jon Jones (21-1) taking on Jake O'Brien (4-2). Jones will look to use a 8-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jones is rated at 2161 — 1159 points above O'Brien's 1002. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jones rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Jones is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while O'Brien looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving O'Brien the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jones throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. O'Brien is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. O'Brien has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jon Jones over Jake O'Brien. We're leaning Jones here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Dong Hyun Kim (13-3) taking on TJ Grant (7-3). Kim is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Grant is rated at 1640 — 322 points above Kim's 1318. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Kim rides a 3-fight win streak into this one, while Grant has won 4 straight.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kim throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grant is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Grant has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dong Hyun Kim over TJ Grant. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kim at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Tom Lawlor (6-4) taking on CB Dollaway (11-8). Dollaway is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Lawlor is rated at 1205 — 240 points above Dollaway's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Lawlor is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Dollaway looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Dollaway the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dollaway throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawlor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Dollaway has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: CB Dollaway over Tom Lawlor. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Dollaway at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Shannon Gugerty (2-2) taking on Matt Grice (2-4).

Gugerty is rated at 971 — 158 points above Grice's 813. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gugerty is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shannon Gugerty over Matt Grice. We're leaning Gugerty here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.