The Ultimate Fighter: United States vs. United Kingdom Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Lightweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Clay Guida (18-18). Sanchez is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sanchez is rated at 1139 — 214 points above Guida's 926. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's knockout artist game against Guida's wrestler approach. Sanchez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Guida looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guida throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Guida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Guida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Clay Guida. The model gives Sanchez a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features James Wilks (2-1) taking on DaMarques Johnson (4-5).

Wilks is rated at 995 — 154 points above Johnson's 841. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Johnson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: DaMarques Johnson over James Wilks. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Kevin Burns (2-2). Burns will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 475 points above Burns's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lytle throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Lytle over Kevin Burns. The model gives Lytle a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Ross Pearson (12-12) taking on Andre Winner (2-3). Winner is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Winner carries a modest Elo edge (911 to 849), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Winner throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Winner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Winner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ross Pearson over Andre Winner. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pearson at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Nate Diaz (15-11). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Diaz is rated at 1557 — 650 points above Stevenson's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Stevenson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Stevenson over Nate Diaz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stevenson at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Gleison Tibau (16-11).

Guillard is rated at 1177 — 158 points above Tibau's 1019. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Guillard's knockout artist game against Tibau's wrestler approach. Guillard is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tibau looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guillard throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Guillard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Melvin Guillard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tibau at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Brad Blackburn (3-1) taking on Edgar Garcia (0-3).

Blackburn is rated at 943 — 293 points above Garcia's 650. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Blackburn throws significantly more leather — a 5.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Blackburn over Edgar Garcia. The model gives Blackburn a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tomasz Drwal (3-2) taking on Mike Ciesnolevicz (1-0).

Drwal carries a modest Elo edge (1008 to 972), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Drwal throws significantly more leather — a 5.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Drwal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Ciesnolevicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tomasz Drwal over Mike Ciesnolevicz. We're leaning Drwal here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Osipczak (2-2) taking on Frank Lester (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Osipczak at 971 versus Lester at 890. That 82-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lester throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lester is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lester has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Lester over Nick Osipczak. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lester at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Jason Dent (1-2) taking on Cameron Dollar (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dent at 956 versus Dollar at 839. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dent throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dollar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dollar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Dollar over Jason Dent. The model gives Dollar a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.