UFC 90: Silva vs Cote: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote lands on Saturday, October 25, 2008 in Rosemont, Illinois, USA with 10 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson Silva vs Patrick CoteMiddleweight | Anderson Silva | Lean | 61% |
| Thiago Alves vs Josh KoscheckWelterweight | Thiago Alves | Confident | 73% |
| Gray Maynard vs Rich ClementiLightweight | Gray Maynard | Confident | 67% |
| Junior Dos Santos vs Fabricio WerdumHeavyweight | Fabricio Werdum | Lean | 56% |
| Sean Sherk vs Tyson GriffinLightweight | Tyson Griffin | Toss-up | 50% |
| Thales Leites vs Drew McFedriesMiddleweight | Thales Leites | Lean | 63% |
| Spencer Fisher vs Shannon GugertyLightweight | Spencer Fisher | Lean | 60% |
| Dan Miller vs Matt HorwichMiddleweight | Dan Miller | Lean | 62% |
| Hermes Franca vs Marcus AurelioLightweight | Hermes Franca | Confident | 66% |
| Pete Sell vs Joshua BurkmanWelterweight | Joshua Burkman | Confident | 73% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Anderson Silva vs Patrick Cote
The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Patrick Cote (10-10). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Cote carries a modest Elo edge (1221 to 1154), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Silva's knockout artist game against Cote's all-rounder approach. Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Cote is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Cote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Anderson Silva over Patrick Cote. The model gives Silva a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Thiago Alves vs Josh Koscheck
The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Josh Koscheck (15-9). Koscheck will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Koscheck carries a modest Elo edge (939 to 901), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Koscheck's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Koscheck looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Koscheck is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Koscheck has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Alves over Josh Koscheck. We're leaning Alves here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Gray Maynard vs Rich Clementi
The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Rich Clementi (5-4).
Clementi carries a modest Elo edge (1034 to 975), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Clementi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gray Maynard over Rich Clementi. We're leaning Maynard here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Junior Dos Santos vs Fabricio Werdum
The Heavyweight matchup features Junior Dos Santos (15-7) taking on Fabricio Werdum (11-6).
Werdum is rated at 1495 — 304 points above Santos's 1191. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Santos's striker game against Werdum's wrestler approach. Santos brings a versatile approach, while Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Werdum throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Werdum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Santos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Junior Dos Santos. The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Sean Sherk vs Tyson Griffin
The Lightweight matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Tyson Griffin (8-5).
Sherk is rated at 1371 — 446 points above Griffin's 925. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tyson Griffin over Sean Sherk. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Griffin at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries
The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Drew McFedries (4-4). Leites will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Leites is rated at 1176 — 193 points above McFedries's 983. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Leites's wrestler game against McFedries's knockout artist approach. Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while McFedries is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. McFedries throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Leites is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. McFedries has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thales Leites over Drew McFedries. The model gives Leites a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Spencer Fisher vs Shannon Gugerty
The Lightweight matchup features Spencer Fisher (9-7) taking on Shannon Gugerty (2-2). Gugerty is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Gugerty at 971 versus Fisher at 876. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fisher throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gugerty is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Gugerty has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Spencer Fisher over Shannon Gugerty. The model gives Fisher a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Dan Miller vs Matt Horwich
The Middleweight matchup features Dan Miller (6-6) taking on Matt Horwich (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Miller at 886, Horwich at 881. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Horwich throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Horwich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Horwich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Miller over Matt Horwich. The model gives Miller a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Hermes Franca vs Marcus Aurelio
The Lightweight matchup features Hermes Franca (6-4) taking on Marcus Aurelio (2-3). Aurelio is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Franca at 1107 versus Aurelio at 969. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Aurelio is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Franca the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Aurelio throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Aurelio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Hermes Franca over Marcus Aurelio. We're leaning Franca here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Pete Sell vs Joshua Burkman
The Welterweight matchup features Pete Sell (2-4) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11). Sell will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Sell at 863 versus Burkman at 743. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Burkman throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Pete Sell. We're leaning Burkman here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.