UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben lands on Saturday, October 18, 2008 in Birmingham, England, United Kingdom with 11 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Bisping vs Chris LebenMiddleweight | Michael Bisping | Confident | 66% |
| Keith Jardine vs Brandon VeraLight Heavyweight | Brandon Vera | Toss-up | 51% |
| Luiz Cane vs Rameau Thierry SokoudjouLight Heavyweight | Luiz Cane | Lean | 62% |
| Chris Lytle vs Paul TaylorWelterweight | Paul Taylor | Confident | 71% |
| Marcus Davis vs Paul KellyWelterweight | Paul Kelly | Toss-up | 51% |
| Dan Hardy vs Akihiro GonoWelterweight | Dan Hardy | Confident | 66% |
| Shane Carwin vs Neil WainHeavyweight | Shane Carwin | Strong | 86% |
| David Bielkheden vs Jess LiaudinLightweight | David Bielkheden | Lean | 63% |
| Terry Etim vs Sam StoutLightweight | Terry Etim | Toss-up | 54% |
| Jim Miller vs David BaronLightweight | Jim Miller | Confident | 65% |
| Per Eklund vs Samy SchiavoLightweight | Per Eklund | Confident | 71% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Michael Bisping vs Chris Leben
The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). Bisping is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Bisping is rated at 1522 — 667 points above Leben's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Bisping's striker game against Leben's all-rounder approach. Bisping brings a versatile approach, while Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Michael Bisping over Chris Leben. We're leaning Bisping here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Keith Jardine vs Brandon Vera
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jardine at 950, Vera at 945. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Jardine brings a versatile approach, while Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Vera the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Jardine has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Brandon Vera over Keith Jardine. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Vera at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Luiz Cane vs Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Luiz Cane (4-4) taking on Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou (1-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Cane.
Sokoudjou carries a modest Elo edge (987 to 922), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 3.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Cane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Luiz Cane over Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou. The model gives Cane a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Chris Lytle vs Paul Taylor
The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Paul Taylor (3-5). Taylor will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.
Lytle is rated at 1330 — 273 points above Taylor's 1057. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Taylor is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Lytle the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paul Taylor over Chris Lytle. We're leaning Taylor here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Marcus Davis vs Paul Kelly
The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Paul Kelly (5-3).
Davis carries a modest Elo edge (1032 to 998), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Davis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kelly looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Kelly the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kelly throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Paul Kelly over Marcus Davis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Kelly at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Dan Hardy vs Akihiro Gono
The Welterweight matchup features Dan Hardy (5-4) taking on Akihiro Gono (1-1). Hardy is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 6-inch reach advantage.
Hardy is rated at 1262 — 229 points above Gono's 1034. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gono throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Gono is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Hardy has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dan Hardy over Akihiro Gono. We're leaning Hardy here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Shane Carwin vs Neil Wain
The Heavyweight matchup features Shane Carwin (4-1) taking on Neil Wain (0-0).
Carwin is rated at 1317 — 387 points above Wain's 930. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Carwin throws significantly more leather — a 6.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Wain is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wain has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Shane Carwin over Neil Wain. The model is firm on this one: Carwin at 86%.
David Bielkheden vs Jess Liaudin
The Lightweight matchup features David Bielkheden (1-1) taking on Jess Liaudin (2-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Bielkheden at 952, Liaudin at 940. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Liaudin throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Liaudin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.9 more per 15 minutes. Bielkheden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: David Bielkheden over Jess Liaudin. The model gives Bielkheden a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Terry Etim vs Sam Stout
The Lightweight matchup features Terry Etim (6-4) taking on Sam Stout (9-10). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Etim is rated at 947 — 190 points above Stout's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Etim's wrestler game against Stout's striker approach. Etim looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stout brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Terry Etim over Sam Stout. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Etim at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Jim Miller vs David Baron
The Lightweight matchup features Jim Miller (27-17) taking on David Baron (0-0).
Miller is rated at 1213 — 324 points above Baron's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Baron throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Baron is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Baron has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jim Miller over David Baron. We're leaning Miller here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Per Eklund vs Samy Schiavo
The Lightweight matchup features Per Eklund (1-1) taking on Samy Schiavo (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Eklund at 874 versus Schiavo at 771. That 104-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Eklund throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Eklund is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Eklund has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Per Eklund over Samy Schiavo. We're leaning Eklund here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.