UFC 88: Breakthrough
Saturday, September 6, 2008·Atlanta, Georgia, USA
Model Record: 8/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Rashad Evans won by KO/TKO (R2)
Evans 70%30% Liddell
CONFIDENT
Striker vs Striker — Striker wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +21(favors Evans)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.7(favors Liddell)
→Takedown rate advantage: +5.3(favors Evans)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Rich Franklin won by KO/TKO (R3)
Franklin 51%49% Hamill
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +154(favors Franklin)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Hamill)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.9(favors Hamill)
MiddleweightHIT
Dan Henderson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Henderson 53%47% Palhares
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Submission Artist — Striker wins 48% historically
→Elo gap: -17(favors Palhares)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.7(favors Henderson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -3.4(favors Palhares)
MiddleweightHIT
Nate Marquardt won by KO/TKO (R1)
Marquardt 58%42% Kampmann
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -59(favors Kampmann)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.0(favors Kampmann)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.0(favors Marquardt)
WelterweightHIT
Dong Hyun Kim won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kim 66%34% Brown
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -60(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.7(favors Kim)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.3(favors Kim)
LightweightHIT
Kurt Pellegrino won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Pellegrino 51%49% Tavares
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +73(favors Pellegrino)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Pellegrino)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Tavares)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Boetsch 83%17% Patt
STRONG
→Elo gap: +11(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: +5.3(favors Boetsch)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.3(favors Boetsch)
MiddleweightHIT
Jason MacDonald won by Submission (R2)
MacDonald 52%48% Lambert
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Submission Artist — Wrestler wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: +156(favors MacDonald)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.9(favors Lambert)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Lambert)
WelterweightMISS
Ryo Chonan won by Decision - Split (R3)
Chonan 38%62% Carneiro
LEAN
→Elo gap: -13(favors Carneiro)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.7(favors Chonan)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.5(favors Carneiro)