UFC 85: Bedlam: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Matt Hughes (18-6). Hughes will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Hughes is rated at 1273 — 372 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Alves's knockout artist game against Hughes's wrestler approach. Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Matt Hughes. The model gives Alves a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Jason Day (1-1). Bisping will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 589 points above Day's 933. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Day throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bisping is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Bisping over Jason Day. The model gives Bisping a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5). Swick is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Swick at 1045, Davis at 1032. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Swick is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Davis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Swick over Marcus Davis. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swick at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Thales Leites (12-8) taking on Nate Marquardt (13-11). Leites will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Leites at 1176 versus Marquardt at 1064. That 112-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Leites looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Marquardt is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Leites the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Leites throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Thales Leites. The model gives Marquardt a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Fabricio Werdum (11-6) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6).

Werdum is rated at 1495 — 550 points above Vera's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Werdum's wrestler game against Vera's knockout artist approach. Werdum looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Vera is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Werdum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fabricio Werdum over Brandon Vera. The model gives Werdum a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Martin Kampmann (11-5) taking on Jorge Rivera (7-7).

Kampmann is rated at 1358 — 184 points above Rivera's 1174. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Kampmann's all-rounder game against Rivera's striker approach. Kampmann is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Rivera brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kampmann throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Kampmann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Kampmann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Martin Kampmann over Jorge Rivera. We're leaning Kampmann here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Wiman (10-7) taking on Thiago Tavares (10-6-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Wiman.

Tavares is rated at 1124 — 256 points above Wiman's 868. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Wiman's knockout artist game against Tavares's wrestler approach. Wiman is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Tavares looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Wiman throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Tavares is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Tavares has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Wiman over Thiago Tavares. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wiman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Kevin Burns (2-2) taking on Roan Carneiro (4-4).

Carneiro is rated at 1115 — 260 points above Burns's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carneiro throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Carneiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.1 more per 15 minutes. Burns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Roan Carneiro over Kevin Burns. We're leaning Carneiro here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Luiz Cane (4-4) taking on Jason Lambert (4-3).

Cane carries a modest Elo edge (922 to 890), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Cane's striker game against Lambert's submission artist approach. Cane brings a versatile approach, while Lambert is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cane throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Cane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.8 more per 15 minutes. Cane has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luiz Cane over Jason Lambert. We're leaning Cane here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Paul Taylor (3-5) taking on Jess Liaudin (2-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Taylor.

There's a real Elo separation here: Taylor at 1057 versus Liaudin at 940. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liaudin throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Taylor is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jess Liaudin over Paul Taylor. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Liaudin at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Antoni Hardonk (4-3) taking on Eddie Sanchez (3-2). Hardonk is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hardonk at 948, Sanchez at 919. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Hardonk is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sanchez brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Hardonk the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hardonk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Antoni Hardonk over Eddie Sanchez. The model gives Hardonk a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.