UFC 81: Breaking Point
Saturday, February 2, 2008·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 6/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
HeavyweightHIT
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira won by Submission (R3)
Nogueira 57%43% Sylvia
LEAN
Submission Artist vs All-Rounder — Submission Artist wins 56% historically
→Elo gap: -409(favors Sylvia)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Nogueira)
→Takedown rate advantage: +4.0(favors Nogueira)
HeavyweightHIT
Frank Mir won by Submission (R1)
Mir 62%38% Lesnar
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +194(favors Mir)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Mir)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Mir)
MiddleweightHIT
Nate Marquardt won by Submission (R2)
Marquardt 69%31% Horn
CONFIDENT
Submission Artist vs Wrestler — Submission Artist wins 44% historically
→Elo gap: -14(favors Horn)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Marquardt)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.9(favors Marquardt)
MiddleweightMISS
Ricardo Almeida won by Submission (R1)
Almeida 50%50% Yundt
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -64(favors Yundt)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.0(favors Almeida)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Almeida)
LightweightHIT
Tyson Griffin won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Griffin 52%48% Tibau
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: -15(favors Tibau)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Griffin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Tibau)
WelterweightHIT
Chris Lytle won by KO/TKO (R1)
Lytle 54%46% Bradley
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -66(favors Bradley)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Lytle)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.2(favors Lytle)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Tim Boetsch won by KO/TKO (R1)
Boetsch 55%45% Heath
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +44(favors Boetsch)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Heath)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.4(favors Heath)
MiddleweightMISS
Marvin Eastman won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Eastman 31%69% Martin
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: -209(favors Martin)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.2(favors Martin)
→Takedown rate advantage: -4.1(favors Martin)
LightweightMISS
Rob Emerson won by Decision - Split (R3)
Emerson 47%53% Nakamura
TOSS-UP
Striker vs Wrestler — Striker wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +145(favors Emerson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Nakamura)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Emerson)