UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Amanda Lemos (9-4).

There's a real Elo separation here: Jandiroba at 1457 versus Lemos at 1335. That 121-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jandiroba's wrestler game against Lemos's knockout artist approach. Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jandiroba throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Jandiroba has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Virna Jandiroba over Amanda Lemos. The model gives Jandiroba a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Steve Garcia (7-2) taking on SeungWoo Choi (4-6).

Garcia is rated at 1593 — 772 points above Choi's 821. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Garcia rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Garcia is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Choi brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Garcia the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garcia throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Garcia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Garcia over SeungWoo Choi. We're leaning Garcia here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Kurt Holobaugh (2-6) taking on Kaynan Kruschewsky (0-1). Kruschewsky will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Holobaugh at 833, Kruschewsky at 839. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Holobaugh is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Kruschewsky has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kaynan Kruschewsky over Kurt Holobaugh. The model gives Kruschewsky a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Bruno Silva (4-4) taking on Cody Durden (6-6-1). Durden is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1203 — 357 points above Durden's 846. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Durden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Durden the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Durden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cody Durden over Bruno Silva. We're leaning Durden here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Dooho Choi (4-3-1) taking on Bill Algeo (5-4). Algeo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Choi is rated at 1314 — 400 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Choi's striker game against Algeo's all-rounder approach. Choi brings a versatile approach, while Algeo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Algeo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Choi has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bill Algeo over Dooho Choi. We're leaning Algeo here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Hyder Amil (3-1) taking on JeongYeong Lee (2-1). Lee will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Amil carries a modest Elo edge (1011 to 937), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Amil throws significantly more leather — a 8.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Amil is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Amil has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: JeongYeong Lee over Hyder Amil. We're leaning Lee here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Cody Gibson (3-6) taking on Brian Kelleher (8-8). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Gibson carries a modest Elo edge (843 to 766), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Gibson's striker game against Kelleher's wrestler approach. Gibson brings a versatile approach, while Kelleher looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Kelleher is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.9 more per 15 minutes. Kelleher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brian Kelleher over Cody Gibson. The model gives Kelleher a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Dione Barbosa (2-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Barbosa.

Maverick is rated at 1264 — 240 points above Barbosa's 1025. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maverick throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Barbosa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Dione Barbosa. The model is firm on this one: Maverick at 75%.

The Lightweight matchup features Trey Ogden (3-2) taking on Loik Radzhabov (2-1). Ogden will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ogden carries a modest Elo edge (1077 to 1009), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ogden throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Radzhabov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trey Ogden over Loik Radzhabov. The model gives Ogden a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Luana Carolina (6-3) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7).

Carolina is rated at 1036 — 233 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Carolina rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Carolina's striker game against Pudilova's all-rounder approach. Carolina brings a versatile approach, while Pudilova is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carolina throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pudilova is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Carolina has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luana Carolina over Lucie Pudilova. The model gives Carolina a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Thomas Petersen (2-2) taking on Mohammed Usman (3-2). Usman will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Usman is rated at 1087 — 159 points above Petersen's 929. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petersen throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Petersen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Usman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thomas Petersen over Mohammed Usman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petersen at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.