UFC 78: Validation: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Michael Bisping (20-8).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 401 points above Evans's 1121. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Evans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Evans has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rashad Evans over Michael Bisping. The model gives Evans a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Houston Alexander (2-3). Silva is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Silva is rated at 1362 — 583 points above Alexander's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 14.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Silva over Houston Alexander. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Ryo Chonan (1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Parisyan at 1037 versus Chonan at 921. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.6 more per 15 minutes. Chonan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Ryo Chonan. The model is firm on this one: Parisyan at 81%.

The Middleweight matchup features Ed Herman (13-11) taking on Joe Doerksen (2-6).

There's a real Elo separation here: Herman at 1045 versus Doerksen at 925. That 120-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Doerksen looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Doerksen the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Doerksen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ed Herman over Joe Doerksen. The model is firm on this one: Herman at 79%.

The Lightweight matchup features Frankie Edgar (18-10-1) taking on Spencer Fisher (9-7).

Edgar is rated at 1185 — 310 points above Fisher's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edgar throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Edgar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Edgar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frankie Edgar over Spencer Fisher. We're leaning Edgar here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 429 points above Alves's 901. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Alves is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Alves the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Chris Lytle. We're leaning Alves here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Joe Lauzon (14-12) taking on Jason Reinhardt (0-2).

Lauzon is rated at 1036 — 280 points above Reinhardt's 755. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lauzon throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lauzon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Reinhardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Lauzon over Jason Reinhardt. The model is firm on this one: Lauzon at 82%.

The Lightweight matchup features Marcus Aurelio (2-3) taking on Luke Caudillo (0-1).

Aurelio is rated at 969 — 193 points above Caudillo's 776. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aurelio throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Caudillo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Aurelio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus Aurelio over Luke Caudillo. The model gives Aurelio a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Akihiro Gono (1-1) taking on Tamdan McCrory (4-4). McCrory is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 8-inch reach advantage.

Gono carries a modest Elo edge (1034 to 976), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. McCrory throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McCrory is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.3 more per 15 minutes. Gono has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tamdan McCrory over Akihiro Gono. The model is firm on this one: McCrory at 80%.