UFC 77: Hostile Territory: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Anderson Silva (17-6) taking on Rich Franklin (14-5).

Silva carries a modest Elo edge (1154 to 1094), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Anderson Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Franklin at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Brandon Vera (8-6). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 351 points above Vera's 945. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Vera throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Vera is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sylvia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tim Sylvia over Brandon Vera. The model gives Sylvia a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Alvin Robinson (1-2) taking on Jorge Gurgel (3-3).

Robinson carries a modest Elo edge (855 to 811), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gurgel throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Robinson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gurgel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jorge Gurgel over Alvin Robinson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gurgel at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Stephan Bonnar (8-6) taking on Eric Schafer (3-5). Bonnar will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Bonnar is rated at 1278 — 401 points above Schafer's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Bonnar rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Schafer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.7 more per 15 minutes. Bonnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Eric Schafer. The model gives Bonnar a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Kalib Starnes (2-2).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 358 points above Starnes's 936. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Starnes throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Starnes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Belcher has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alan Belcher over Kalib Starnes. The model gives Belcher a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Yushin Okami (14-6) taking on Jason MacDonald (6-7). MacDonald will look to use a 5-inch reach edge to control distance.

Okami is rated at 1061 — 230 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Okami looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while MacDonald is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Okami the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. MacDonald throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Okami is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Okami has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yushin Okami over Jason MacDonald. We're leaning Okami here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Demian Maia (22-10) taking on Ryan Jensen (2-5). Jensen will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Maia is rated at 1371 — 612 points above Jensen's 759. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jensen throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Jensen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Jensen over Demian Maia. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jensen at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on Forrest Petz (2-4).

Petz carries a modest Elo edge (784 to 743), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Burkman's wrestler game against Petz's striker approach. Burkman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Petz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Petz throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Burkman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joshua Burkman over Forrest Petz. We're leaning Burkman here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Matt Grice (2-4) taking on Jason Black (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Grice at 813, Black at 843. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Grice throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Grice is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Grice has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Grice over Jason Black. The model is firm on this one: Grice at 84%.