UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian: Predictions & Analysis
UFC Fight Night: Thomas vs Florian lands on Wednesday, September 19, 2007 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Florian vs Din ThomasLightweight | Kenny Florian | Lean | 59% |
| Chris Leben vs Terry MartinMiddleweight | Terry Martin | Lean | 57% |
| Nate Diaz vs Junior AssuncaoLightweight | Nate Diaz | Confident | 66% |
| Nate Quarry vs Pete SellMiddleweight | Pete Sell | Lean | 62% |
| Luke Cummo vs Edilberto de OliveiraWelterweight | Luke Cummo | Confident | 75% |
| Cole Miller vs Leonard GarciaLightweight | Cole Miller | Strong | 78% |
| Gray Maynard vs Joe VeresLightweight | Gray Maynard | Strong | 77% |
| Thiago Alves vs Kuniyoshi HironakaWelterweight | Thiago Alves | Confident | 66% |
| Dustin Hazelett vs Jonathan GouletWelterweight | Dustin Hazelett | Confident | 67% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Kenny Florian vs Din Thomas
The Lightweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Din Thomas (5-3).
Florian is rated at 1304 — 292 points above Thomas's 1012. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Thomas throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Thomas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kenny Florian over Din Thomas. The model gives Florian a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Chris Leben vs Terry Martin
The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Terry Martin (2-3). Leben is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leben at 855, Martin at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Stylistically this is Leben's all-rounder game against Martin's striker approach. Leben is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Martin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Leben has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Terry Martin over Chris Leben. The model gives Martin a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Nate Diaz vs Junior Assuncao
The Lightweight matchup features Nate Diaz (15-11) taking on Junior Assuncao (2-2). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.
Diaz is rated at 1557 — 595 points above Assuncao's 963. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Assuncao throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Assuncao is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Diaz over Junior Assuncao. We're leaning Diaz here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Nate Quarry vs Pete Sell
The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Pete Sell (2-4). Sell will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
Quarry is rated at 1179 — 316 points above Sell's 863. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Quarry's striker game against Sell's wrestler approach. Quarry brings a versatile approach, while Sell looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Quarry throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Quarry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pete Sell over Nate Quarry. The model gives Sell a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.
Luke Cummo vs Edilberto de Oliveira
The Welterweight matchup features Luke Cummo (3-3) taking on Edilberto de Oliveira (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Cummo at 896 versus Oliveira at 799. That 97-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Oliveira throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Cummo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Luke Cummo over Edilberto de Oliveira. We're leaning Cummo here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Cole Miller vs Leonard Garcia
The Lightweight matchup features Cole Miller (10-8) taking on Leonard Garcia (2-6). Miller is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 5-inch reach advantage.
Miller is rated at 891 — 222 points above Garcia's 669. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Miller looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Garcia is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Miller the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miller throws significantly more leather — a 8.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Garcia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Miller has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Cole Miller over Leonard Garcia. The model is firm on this one: Miller at 78%.
Gray Maynard vs Joe Veres
The Lightweight matchup features Gray Maynard (11-6-1) taking on Joe Veres (0-1).
Maynard is rated at 975 — 185 points above Veres's 790. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Maynard throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Maynard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Veres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Gray Maynard over Joe Veres. The model is firm on this one: Maynard at 77%.
Thiago Alves vs Kuniyoshi Hironaka
The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Kuniyoshi Hironaka (1-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alves at 901, Hironaka at 878. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Hironaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Alves has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Alves over Kuniyoshi Hironaka. We're leaning Alves here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Dustin Hazelett vs Jonathan Goulet
The Welterweight matchup features Dustin Hazelett (5-4) taking on Jonathan Goulet (4-4). Hazelett will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hazelett at 973, Goulet at 997. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hazelett throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Goulet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Hazelett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dustin Hazelett over Jonathan Goulet. We're leaning Hazelett here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.