UFC 75: Champion vs Champion: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight championship matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Dan Henderson (9-8).

There's a real Elo separation here: Henderson at 1404 versus Jackson at 1296. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Henderson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Dan Henderson. We're leaning Jackson here at 72%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Michael Bisping (20-8) taking on Matt Hamill (10-4).

Bisping is rated at 1522 — 372 points above Hamill's 1150. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bisping throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Bisping has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Hamill over Michael Bisping. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hamill at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Cheick Kongo (11-5-1) taking on Mirko Filipovic (4-6). Kongo is the bigger frame at 6'4" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Kongo carries a modest Elo edge (1183 to 1145), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Kongo brings a versatile approach, while Filipovic is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Filipovic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kongo throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Kongo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Filipovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cheick Kongo over Mirko Filipovic. The model is firm on this one: Kongo at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Paul Taylor (3-5). Taylor is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Davis at 1032, Taylor at 1057. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Davis is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Taylor is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Davis the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Taylor throws significantly more leather — a 4.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Taylor has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcus Davis over Paul Taylor. The model gives Davis a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Houston Alexander (2-3) taking on Alessio Sakara (6-7).

Sakara is rated at 931 — 152 points above Alexander's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Alexander is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Sakara brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alexander the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 15.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Sakara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Sakara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Houston Alexander over Alessio Sakara. We're leaning Alexander here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Gleison Tibau (16-11) taking on Terry Etim (6-4). Etim is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Tibau carries a modest Elo edge (1019 to 947), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tibau throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Tibau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Tibau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Gleison Tibau over Terry Etim. We're leaning Tibau here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on Tomasz Drwal (3-2).

Silva is rated at 1362 — 354 points above Drwal's 1008. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Drwal is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Silva the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 13.6 more per 15 minutes. Drwal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Silva over Tomasz Drwal. We're leaning Silva here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Dennis Siver (11-8) taking on Naoyuki Kotani (0-4). Siver will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Siver is rated at 1214 — 530 points above Kotani's 684. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Siver throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Siver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.1 more per 15 minutes. Siver has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Siver over Naoyuki Kotani. The model gives Siver a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Jess Liaudin (2-2) taking on Anthony Torres (1-0).

Torres carries a modest Elo edge (983 to 940), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Torres throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Torres is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Torres has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Torres over Jess Liaudin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Torres at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.