UFC 71: Liddell vs Jackson: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Quinton Jackson (7-5) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6). Liddell will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jackson is rated at 1296 — 261 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jackson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Liddell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jackson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Quinton Jackson over Chuck Liddell. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Joshua Burkman (6-11).

Parisyan is rated at 1037 — 293 points above Burkman's 743. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parisyan throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Burkman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Joshua Burkman. The model gives Parisyan a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Terry Martin (2-3) taking on Ivan Salaverry (3-3).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Martin at 848, Salaverry at 874. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Martin's striker game against Salaverry's submission artist approach. Martin brings a versatile approach, while Salaverry is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Martin throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Martin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Salaverry has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Martin over Ivan Salaverry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Houston Alexander (2-3) taking on Keith Jardine (6-6). Jardine is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Jardine is rated at 950 — 172 points above Alexander's 779. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Alexander is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Jardine brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Alexander the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jardine throws significantly more leather — a 4.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Jardine is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Alexander has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Jardine over Houston Alexander. The model gives Jardine a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Kalib Starnes (2-2) taking on Chris Leben (12-9). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Starnes.

There's a real Elo separation here: Starnes at 936 versus Leben at 855. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Starnes throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Leben is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.2 more per 15 minutes. Starnes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kalib Starnes over Chris Leben. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Starnes at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Thiago Silva (6-3) taking on James Irvin (4-5).

Silva is rated at 1362 — 507 points above Irvin's 855. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Irvin throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Irvin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Irvin over Thiago Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Irvin at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alan Belcher (9-5) taking on Sean Salmon (0-1).

Belcher is rated at 1293 — 427 points above Salmon's 867. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Salmon throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Salmon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.1 more per 15 minutes. Salmon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Salmon over Alan Belcher. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Salmon at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Din Thomas (5-3) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-18).

Thomas carries a modest Elo edge (1012 to 941), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Thomas's wrestler game against Stephens's striker approach. Thomas looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Stephens brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thomas throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Thomas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Stephens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Din Thomas over Jeremy Stephens. We're leaning Thomas here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Wilson Gouveia (6-3) taking on Carmelo Marrero (1-2). Gouveia will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Gouveia at 1030 versus Marrero at 890. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gouveia throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Marrero is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Gouveia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carmelo Marrero over Wilson Gouveia. The model gives Marrero a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.