UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2
Saturday, June 29, 2024·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 9/13Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightHIT
Alex Pereira won by KO/TKO (R2)
Pereira 59%41% Prochazka
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +241(favors Pereira)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Prochazka)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.5(favors Prochazka)
Catch WeightMISS
Diego Lopes won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Lopes 49%51% Ige
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Knockout Artist — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +33(favors Lopes)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Lopes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Ige)
Light HeavyweightMISS
Roman Dolidze won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dolidze 32%68% Smith
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Smith)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Smith)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.6(favors Smith)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Macy Chiasson won by KO/TKO (R2)
Chiasson 65%35% Silva
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +14(favors Chiasson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.3(favors Chiasson)
WelterweightHIT
Ian Machado Garry won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Garry 76%24% Page
STRONG
→Elo gap: +452(favors Garry)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.1(favors Garry)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.7(favors Garry)
MiddleweightHIT
Joe Pyfer won by KO/TKO (R1)
Pyfer 71%29% Barriault
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +85(favors Pyfer)
→Striking volume advantage: -3.1(favors Barriault)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.1(favors Pyfer)
FeatherweightHIT
Andre Fili won by Decision - Split (R3)
Fili 55%45% Swanson
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -167(favors Swanson)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Swanson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.9(favors Swanson)
FeatherweightHIT
Jean Silva won by KO/TKO (R2)
Silva 61%39% Jourdain
LEAN
Knockout Artist vs All-Rounder — Knockout Artist wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -58(favors Jourdain)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Silva)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.3(favors Silva)
BantamweightHIT
Payton Talbott won by KO/TKO (R1)
Talbott 67%33% Ghemmouri
CONFIDENT
→Elo gap: +307(favors Talbott)
→Striking volume advantage: +4.3(favors Talbott)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.0(favors Ghemmouri)
Women's StrawweightHIT
Gillian Robertson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Robertson 67%33% Waterson-Gomez
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +274(favors Robertson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Waterson-Gomez)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.5(favors Robertson)
HeavyweightHIT
Martin Buday won by Decision - Split (R3)
Buday 73%27% Arlovski
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +101(favors Buday)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.9(favors Buday)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Buday)
FlyweightMISS
Rei Tsuruya won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Tsuruya 47%53% Hernandez
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +38(favors Tsuruya)
→Striking volume advantage: -4.9(favors Hernandez)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.5(favors Hernandez)
BantamweightMISS
Vinicius Oliveira won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Oliveira 44%56% Simon
LEAN
→Elo gap: -125(favors Simon)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.7(favors Oliveira)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.1(favors Simon)