Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter: Predictions & Analysis
Ortiz vs Shamrock 3: The Final Chapter lands on Tuesday, October 10, 2006 in Hollywood, Florida, USA with 9 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tito Ortiz vs Ken ShamrockLight Heavyweight | Tito Ortiz | Strong | 82% |
| Kendall Grove vs Chris PriceMiddleweight | Kendall Grove | Confident | 69% |
| Jason MacDonald vs Ed HermanMiddleweight | Ed Herman | Toss-up | 54% |
| Matt Hamill vs Seth PetruzelliLight Heavyweight | Matt Hamill | Confident | 71% |
| Nate Marquardt vs Crafton WallaceMiddleweight | Nate Marquardt | Strong | 85% |
| Tony DeSouza vs Dustin HazelettWelterweight | Tony DeSouza | Toss-up | 55% |
| Rory Singer vs Josh HaynesMiddleweight | Rory Singer | Lean | 56% |
| Thiago Alves vs John AlessioWelterweight | Thiago Alves | Toss-up | 54% |
| Marcus Davis vs Forrest PetzWelterweight | Marcus Davis | Toss-up | 53% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-4-2). Ortiz is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Shamrock carries a modest Elo edge (1125 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shamrock is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Ortiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Ken Shamrock. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 82%.
Kendall Grove vs Chris Price
The Middleweight matchup features Kendall Grove (7-5) taking on Chris Price (0-1).
Grove is rated at 994 — 224 points above Price's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Grove throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Price is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Price has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Kendall Grove over Chris Price. We're leaning Grove here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Jason MacDonald vs Ed Herman
The Middleweight matchup features Jason MacDonald (6-7) taking on Ed Herman (13-11). MacDonald is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
Herman is rated at 1045 — 214 points above MacDonald's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: MacDonald is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Herman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving MacDonald the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Herman throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Herman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. MacDonald has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ed Herman over Jason MacDonald. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Herman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Matt Hamill vs Seth Petruzelli
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Hamill (10-4) taking on Seth Petruzelli (0-3).
Hamill is rated at 1150 — 434 points above Petruzelli's 716. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hamill throws significantly more leather — a 6.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hamill is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Petruzelli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hamill over Seth Petruzelli. We're leaning Hamill here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Nate Marquardt vs Crafton Wallace
The Middleweight matchup features Nate Marquardt (13-11) taking on Crafton Wallace (0-1).
Marquardt is rated at 1064 — 208 points above Wallace's 856. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Marquardt throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Marquardt is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Marquardt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Nate Marquardt over Crafton Wallace. The model is firm on this one: Marquardt at 85%.
Tony DeSouza vs Dustin Hazelett
The Welterweight matchup features Tony DeSouza (3-2) taking on Dustin Hazelett (5-4). Hazelett will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
There's a real Elo separation here: Hazelett at 973 versus DeSouza at 878. That 96-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: DeSouza looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Hazelett is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving DeSouza the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. DeSouza throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. DeSouza is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Hazelett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tony DeSouza over Dustin Hazelett. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward DeSouza at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Rory Singer vs Josh Haynes
The Middleweight matchup features Rory Singer (2-1) taking on Josh Haynes (0-2).
Singer is rated at 961 — 215 points above Haynes's 746. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Singer throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Haynes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Singer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Rory Singer over Josh Haynes. The model gives Singer a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Thiago Alves vs John Alessio
The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on John Alessio (0-4).
There's a real Elo separation here: Alves at 901 versus Alessio at 793. That 108-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Alessio has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Thiago Alves over John Alessio. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Alves at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Marcus Davis vs Forrest Petz
The Welterweight matchup features Marcus Davis (9-5) taking on Forrest Petz (2-4).
Davis is rated at 1032 — 248 points above Petz's 784. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Davis's all-rounder game against Petz's striker approach. Davis is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petz brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Petz throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Petz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Petz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marcus Davis over Forrest Petz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Davis at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.