UFC 59: Reality Check: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Tim Sylvia (9-3) taking on Andrei Arlovski (23-17). Sylvia is the bigger frame at 6'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Sylvia is rated at 1296 — 438 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Sylvia brings a versatile approach, while Arlovski is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Arlovski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Sylvia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Tim Sylvia. We're leaning Arlovski here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 9-inch reach advantage.

Sherk is rated at 1371 — 186 points above Diaz's 1185. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sherk's wrestler game against Diaz's knockout artist approach. Sherk looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Diaz is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Sherk is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sean Sherk over Nick Diaz. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sherk at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Forrest Griffin (9-5). Griffin will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 271 points above Ortiz's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Forrest Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ortiz at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Justin Levens (0-1).

Tanner is rated at 1034 — 205 points above Levens's 829. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Levens has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Evan Tanner over Justin Levens. We're leaning Tanner here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jeff Monson (4-2) taking on Marcio Cruz (2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Monson at 1233 versus Cruz at 1105. That 129-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Monson rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cruz throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Monson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Cruz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcio Cruz over Jeff Monson. We're leaning Cruz here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Karo Parisyan (8-3) taking on Nick Thompson (1-0). Thompson is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Parisyan at 1037, Thompson at 1019. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thompson throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Parisyan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.3 more per 15 minutes. Thompson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karo Parisyan over Nick Thompson. We're leaning Parisyan here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features David Terrell (1-1) taking on Scott Smith (1-2).

Terrell is rated at 1197 — 360 points above Smith's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Terrell throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Terrell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Terrell over Scott Smith. We're leaning Terrell here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jason Lambert (4-3) taking on Terry Martin (2-3). Lambert is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Lambert carries a modest Elo edge (890 to 848), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Lambert's submission artist game against Martin's striker approach. Lambert is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Martin brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lambert throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lambert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Lambert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terry Martin over Jason Lambert. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Martin at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Thiago Alves (15-11) taking on Derrick Noble (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Alves at 901, Noble at 893. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alves throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alves is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Noble has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Thiago Alves over Derrick Noble. We're leaning Alves here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.