UFC Fight Night 4
Thursday, April 6, 2006·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Model Record: 3/9Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
Light HeavyweightMISS
Stephan Bonnar won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Bonnar 49%51% Jardine
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Striker — Wrestler wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: -37(favors Jardine)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.7(favors Jardine)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.2(favors Bonnar)
Light HeavyweightHIT
Rashad Evans won by Decision - Split (R3)
Evans 51%49% Hoger
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -16(favors Hoger)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.0(favors Evans)
→Takedown rate advantage: -1.6(favors Hoger)
WelterweightMISS
Josh Neer won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Neer 49%51% Stevenson
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -41(favors Stevenson)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Stevenson)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.5(favors Stevenson)
MiddleweightHIT
Chris Leben won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Leben 67%33% Fioravanti
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs Wrestler — All-Rounder wins 42% historically
→Elo gap: +268(favors Leben)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.1(favors Leben)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Leben)
WelterweightMISS
Luke Cummo won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Cummo 43%57% Flue
LEAN
→Elo gap: -171(favors Flue)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.1(favors Flue)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.0(favors Cummo)
WelterweightMISS
Jon Fitch won by Submission (R2)
Fitch 43%57% Burkman
LEAN
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -181(favors Burkman)
→Striking volume advantage: -5.8(favors Burkman)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.2(favors Burkman)
HeavyweightMISS
Dan Christison won by Submission (R3)
Christison 48%52% Imes
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +68(favors Christison)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.8(favors Imes)
→Takedown rate advantage: -2.0(favors Imes)
WelterweightHIT
Josh Koscheck won by Submission (R1)
Koscheck 81%19% Chalangov
STRONG
→Elo gap: +243(favors Koscheck)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.2(favors Koscheck)
→Takedown rate advantage: +6.5(favors Koscheck)
MiddleweightMISS
Chael Sonnen won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Sonnen 47%53% Prangley
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: -107(favors Prangley)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.0(favors Prangley)
→Takedown rate advantage: -5.8(favors Prangley)