The Ultimate Fighter: Team Hughes vs. Team Franklin Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Welterweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Nick Diaz (7-6). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Diaz carries a modest Elo edge (1185 to 1139), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Diaz's submission artist approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Diaz is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanchez throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanchez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Diaz over Diego Sanchez. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Rashad Evans (14-7-1) taking on Brad Imes (0-2).

Evans is rated at 1121 — 336 points above Imes's 785. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Imes throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Imes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Imes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brad Imes over Rashad Evans. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Imes at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Joe Stevenson (8-7) taking on Luke Cummo (3-3). Cummo is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Stevenson at 907, Cummo at 896. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Stevenson's wrestler game against Cummo's knockout artist approach. Stevenson looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cummo is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Cummo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Cummo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Cummo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Luke Cummo over Joe Stevenson. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Cummo at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Kenny Florian (12-4) taking on Kit Cope (0-0).

Florian is rated at 1304 — 390 points above Cope's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Cope has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kenny Florian over Kit Cope. The model is firm on this one: Florian at 80%.

The Welterweight matchup features Joshua Burkman (6-11) taking on Sammy Morgan (0-1).

Morgan carries a modest Elo edge (817 to 743), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morgan throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Morgan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morgan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sammy Morgan over Joshua Burkman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Morgan at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Melvin Guillard (12-8) taking on Marcus Davis (9-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Guillard at 1177 versus Davis at 1032. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Davis throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Davis is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Davis has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Melvin Guillard over Marcus Davis. The model gives Guillard a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Keith Jardine (6-6) taking on Kerry Schall (0-0).

Jardine carries a modest Elo edge (950 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schall throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schall is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schall has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Keith Jardine over Kerry Schall. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Jardine at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.