UFC 55: Fury: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Paul Buentello (3-2).

Buentello is rated at 1019 — 162 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arlovski throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Buentello is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Paul Buentello. We're leaning Arlovski here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Branden Lee Hinkle (1-1) taking on Sean Gannon (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hinkle at 897, Gannon at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gannon throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gannon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gannon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Branden Lee Hinkle over Sean Gannon. The model gives Hinkle a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Elvis Sinosic (1-5).

Griffin is rated at 1329 — 509 points above Sinosic's 820. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Sinosic the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Griffin throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Griffin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Griffin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Forrest Griffin over Elvis Sinosic. The model is firm on this one: Griffin at 88%.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Renato Sobral (5-4) taking on Chael Sonnen (7-6).

Sonnen is rated at 1430 — 241 points above Sobral's 1190. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sobral throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Sonnen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Renato Sobral over Chael Sonnen. We're leaning Sobral here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Joe Riggs (5-6) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 488 points above Riggs's 842. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Riggs is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Lytle looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Lytle the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Riggs throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Riggs is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Riggs over Chris Lytle. We're leaning Riggs here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Jorge Rivera (7-7) taking on Dennis Hallman (3-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Rivera.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rivera at 1174, Hallman at 1203. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Rivera's striker game against Hallman's wrestler approach. Rivera brings a versatile approach, while Hallman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rivera throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Hallman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Hallman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dennis Hallman over Jorge Rivera. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hallman at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcio Cruz (2-1) taking on Keigo Kunihara (0-0).

Cruz is rated at 1105 — 215 points above Kunihara's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kunihara throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Kunihara is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kunihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marcio Cruz over Keigo Kunihara. The model gives Cruz a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Alessio Sakara (6-7) taking on Ron Faircloth (0-0).

Faircloth carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 931), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Faircloth throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Faircloth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Faircloth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ron Faircloth over Alessio Sakara. The model gives Faircloth a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.