The Ultimate Fighter: Team Couture vs. Team Liddell Finale: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Rich Franklin (14-5) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-4-2). Franklin will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Shamrock carries a modest Elo edge (1125 to 1094), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

The style clash matters here: Franklin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Shamrock looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Shamrock the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Franklin throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Franklin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rich Franklin over Ken Shamrock. We're leaning Franklin here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Forrest Griffin (9-5) taking on Stephan Bonnar (8-6).

Griffin carries a modest Elo edge (1329 to 1278), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Bonnar has won 3 straight.

The style clash matters here: Griffin is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Bonnar looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Bonnar the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bonnar throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Bonnar is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Bonnar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Stephan Bonnar over Forrest Griffin. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Bonnar at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Diego Sanchez (19-12) taking on Kenny Florian (12-4).

Florian is rated at 1304 — 165 points above Sanchez's 1139. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Sanchez's striker game against Florian's wrestler approach. Sanchez brings a versatile approach, while Florian looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Florian throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Florian is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Florian has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Diego Sanchez over Kenny Florian. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sanchez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Sam Hoger (2-2) taking on Bobby Southworth (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hoger at 925, Southworth at 915. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Southworth throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Southworth is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Southworth has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sam Hoger over Bobby Southworth. The model gives Hoger a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Leben (12-9) taking on Jason Thacker (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Leben at 855, Thacker at 873. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Thacker throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Thacker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Thacker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Leben over Jason Thacker. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leben at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Josh Koscheck (15-9) taking on Chris Sanford (0-0).

Koscheck carries a modest Elo edge (939 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sanford throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sanford is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sanford has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Koscheck over Chris Sanford. The model gives Koscheck a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Nate Quarry (7-2) taking on Lodune Sincaid (0-0).

Quarry is rated at 1179 — 306 points above Sincaid's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sincaid throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Sincaid is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sincaid has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lodune Sincaid over Nate Quarry. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sincaid at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Mike Swick (10-4) taking on Alex Schoenauer (0-0).

Swick is rated at 1045 — 172 points above Schoenauer's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Schoenauer throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Schoenauer is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Schoenauer has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mike Swick over Alex Schoenauer. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Swick at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Alex Karalexis (1-1) taking on Josh Rafferty (0-0).

Rafferty carries a modest Elo edge (873 to 835), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rafferty throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rafferty is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rafferty has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Josh Rafferty over Alex Karalexis. The model gives Rafferty a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.