UFC 47: It's On!: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Tito Ortiz (15-10-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Liddell at 1035, Ortiz at 1059. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Ortiz's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Chuck Liddell. We're leaning Ortiz here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Chris Lytle (9-10) taking on Tiki Ghosn (0-3).

Lytle is rated at 1330 — 636 points above Ghosn's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ghosn throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Lytle is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Lytle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Lytle over Tiki Ghosn. The model gives Lytle a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Hermes Franca (6-4). Edwards is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Franca is rated at 1107 — 290 points above Edwards's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Edwards's knockout artist game against Franca's wrestler approach. Edwards is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Franca looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Franca is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Edwards has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yves Edwards over Hermes Franca. We're leaning Edwards here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Wesley Correira (2-1).

Correira is rated at 1045 — 187 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Correira throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Wesley Correira. The model is firm on this one: Arlovski at 79%.

The Welterweight matchup features Nick Diaz (7-6) taking on Robbie Lawler (14-10). Diaz is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Lawler at 1297 versus Diaz at 1185. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Diaz's all-rounder game against Lawler's striker approach. Diaz is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Lawler brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Diaz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nick Diaz over Robbie Lawler. The model gives Diaz a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mike Kyle (1-1) taking on Wes Sims (0-2).

Kyle is rated at 1087 — 264 points above Sims's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sims throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Sims is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Kyle has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Wes Sims over Mike Kyle. The model gives Sims a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jonathan Wiezorek (0-0) taking on Wade Shipp (0-0).

Wiezorek is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Shipp's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shipp throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Shipp is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Shipp has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Wiezorek over Wade Shipp. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Wiezorek at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Genki Sudo (1-1) taking on Mike Brown (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Sudo at 1110 versus Brown at 982. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Sudo throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sudo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Brown has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Genki Sudo over Mike Brown. The model gives Sudo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.