UFC 45: Revolution: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 45: Revolution lands on Friday, November 21, 2003 in Uncasville, Connecticut, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hughes vs Frank TriggWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Strong | 77% |
| Matt Lindland vs Falaniko VitaleMiddleweight | Matt Lindland | Lean | 57% |
| Wesley Correira vs David AbbottHeavyweight | Wesley Correira | Confident | 68% |
| Evan Tanner vs Phil BaroniMiddleweight | Evan Tanner | Toss-up | 52% |
| Robbie Lawler vs Chris LytleWelterweight | Robbie Lawler | Confident | 75% |
| Pedro Rizzo vs Ricco RodriguezHeavyweight | Ricco Rodriguez | Confident | 70% |
| Keith Rockel vs Chris LiguoriMiddleweight | Keith Rockel | Confident | 74% |
| Yves Edwards vs Nick AgallarLightweight | Yves Edwards | Confident | 68% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Matt Hughes vs Frank Trigg
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Frank Trigg (2-4).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 336 points above Trigg's 937. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Hughes looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Trigg is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Hughes the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.7 more per 15 minutes. Trigg has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Frank Trigg. The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 77%.
Matt Lindland vs Falaniko Vitale
The Middleweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Falaniko Vitale (1-0).
Lindland is rated at 1239 — 179 points above Vitale's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lindland throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Vitale has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Lindland over Falaniko Vitale. The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.
Wesley Correira vs David Abbott
The Heavyweight matchup features Wesley Correira (2-1) taking on David Abbott (8-9).
Correira is rated at 1045 — 268 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Correira throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Correira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Wesley Correira over David Abbott. We're leaning Correira here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Evan Tanner vs Phil Baroni
The Middleweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Tanner is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Tanner is rated at 1034 — 273 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Tanner looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Baroni is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Tanner the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 0.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Evan Tanner over Phil Baroni. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Tanner at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Robbie Lawler vs Chris Lytle
The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Chris Lytle (9-10). Lawler will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.
Lytle carries a modest Elo edge (1330 to 1297), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
Stylistically this is Lawler's striker game against Lytle's submission artist approach. Lawler brings a versatile approach, while Lytle is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.6 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Chris Lytle. We're leaning Lawler here at 75%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Pedro Rizzo vs Ricco Rodriguez
The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Ricco Rodriguez (5-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Rizzo at 1268 versus Rodriguez at 1157. That 111-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Stylistically this is Rizzo's striker game against Rodriguez's wrestler approach. Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.4 more per 15 minutes. Rodriguez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Pedro Rizzo. We're leaning Rodriguez here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Keith Rockel vs Chris Liguori
The Middleweight matchup features Keith Rockel (0-1) taking on Chris Liguori (0-0).
Rockel is rated at 1004 — 160 points above Liguori's 844. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rockel throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Rockel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.8 more per 15 minutes. Liguori has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Keith Rockel over Chris Liguori. We're leaning Rockel here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Yves Edwards vs Nick Agallar
The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Nick Agallar (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Agallar at 935 versus Edwards at 818. That 117-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Agallar has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Yves Edwards over Nick Agallar. We're leaning Edwards here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.