UFC 43: Meltdown: Predictions & Analysis

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Chuck Liddell (16-6).

Couture is rated at 1248 — 212 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Couture's wrestler game against Liddell's striker approach. Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Liddell brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Randy Couture. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Kimo Leopoldo (2-3) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Leopoldo is rated at 1039 — 263 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Abbott throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Abbott is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Leopoldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Kimo Leopoldo over David Abbott. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Leopoldo at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Vitor Belfort (15-9) taking on Marvin Eastman (1-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Belfort.

Belfort is rated at 1255 — 446 points above Eastman's 809. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Belfort throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Belfort is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Eastman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vitor Belfort over Marvin Eastman. The model gives Belfort a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Vernon White (0-0-1) taking on Ian Freeman (3-2).

Freeman carries a modest Elo edge (1054 to 992), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Freeman throws significantly more leather — a 2.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Freeman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. White has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Freeman over Vernon White. We're leaning Freeman here at 68%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Wes Sims (0-2).

Mir is rated at 1252 — 429 points above Sims's 823. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mir throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Mir is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Sims has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Frank Mir over Wes Sims. We're leaning Mir here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Yves Edwards (10-9) taking on Eddie Ruiz (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ruiz at 945 versus Edwards at 818. That 128-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Edwards throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Edwards is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ruiz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Yves Edwards over Eddie Ruiz. The model is firm on this one: Edwards at 84%.

The Middleweight matchup features Falaniko Vitale (1-0) taking on Matt Lindland (8-3).

Lindland is rated at 1239 — 179 points above Vitale's 1059. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindland throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.8 more per 15 minutes. Vitale has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Lindland over Falaniko Vitale. The model is firm on this one: Lindland at 77%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Tra Telligman (1-3).

Rizzo is rated at 1268 — 420 points above Telligman's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rizzo throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Rizzo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Telligman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pedro Rizzo over Tra Telligman. The model is firm on this one: Rizzo at 76%.