UFC 40: Vendetta: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 40: Vendetta lands on Friday, November 22, 2002 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tito Ortiz vs Ken ShamrockLight Heavyweight | Tito Ortiz | Strong | 78% |
| Chuck Liddell vs Renato SobralLight Heavyweight | Chuck Liddell | Lean | 59% |
| Matt Hughes vs Gil CastilloWelterweight | Matt Hughes | Strong | 90% |
| Carlos Newton vs Pete SprattWelterweight | Pete Spratt | Lean | 56% |
| Robbie Lawler vs Tiki GhosnWelterweight | Robbie Lawler | Strong | 78% |
| Andrei Arlovski vs Ian FreemanHeavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Toss-up | 55% |
| Vladimir Matyushenko vs Travis WiuffHeavyweight | Vladimir Matyushenko | Confident | 65% |
| Phillip Miller vs Mark WeirMiddleweight | Mark Weir | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tito Ortiz vs Ken Shamrock
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Ken Shamrock (6-4-2). Ortiz is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Shamrock carries a modest Elo edge (1125 to 1059), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Ortiz looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Shamrock is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Ortiz the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ortiz throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Shamrock has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Ken Shamrock. The model is firm on this one: Ortiz at 78%.
Chuck Liddell vs Renato Sobral
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Renato Sobral (5-4).
Sobral is rated at 1190 — 154 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Sobral's submission artist approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Sobral is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Sobral is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Renato Sobral. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Matt Hughes vs Gil Castillo
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Gil Castillo (1-1).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 273 points above Castillo's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.5 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Hughes over Gil Castillo. The model is firm on this one: Hughes at 90%.
Carlos Newton vs Pete Spratt
The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Newton (3-3) taking on Pete Spratt (3-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Newton at 1023 versus Spratt at 881. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Spratt throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Spratt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pete Spratt over Carlos Newton. The model gives Spratt a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Robbie Lawler vs Tiki Ghosn
The Welterweight matchup features Robbie Lawler (14-10) taking on Tiki Ghosn (0-3).
Lawler is rated at 1297 — 603 points above Ghosn's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Lawler throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Lawler is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.1 more per 15 minutes. Lawler has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Robbie Lawler over Tiki Ghosn. The model is firm on this one: Lawler at 78%.
Andrei Arlovski vs Ian Freeman
The Heavyweight matchup features Andrei Arlovski (23-17) taking on Ian Freeman (3-2).
Freeman is rated at 1054 — 196 points above Arlovski's 858. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Arlovski is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Freeman is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Freeman the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Freeman throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Arlovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Arlovski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Andrei Arlovski over Ian Freeman. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Arlovski at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Vladimir Matyushenko vs Travis Wiuff
The Heavyweight matchup features Vladimir Matyushenko (7-4) taking on Travis Wiuff (0-1).
Matyushenko is rated at 1126 — 277 points above Wiuff's 849. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Matyushenko throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Matyushenko is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Wiuff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Vladimir Matyushenko over Travis Wiuff. We're leaning Matyushenko here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Phillip Miller vs Mark Weir
The Middleweight matchup features Phillip Miller (1-0) taking on Mark Weir (1-1).
Miller is rated at 1211 — 334 points above Weir's 877. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Weir throws significantly more leather — a 22.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Miller is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Weir has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Mark Weir over Phillip Miller. The model gives Weir a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.