UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Saturday, June 1, 2024·Newark, New Jersey, USA
Model Record: 8/12Overall Model Accuracy: 63.4%
LightweightHIT
Islam Makhachev won by Submission (R5)
Makhachev 84%16% Poirier
STRONG
Wrestler vs Knockout Artist — Wrestler wins 51% historically
→Elo gap: +378(favors Makhachev)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.5(favors Poirier)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.5(favors Makhachev)
MiddleweightHIT
Sean Strickland won by Decision - Split (R5)
Strickland 70%30% Costa
CONFIDENT
Knockout Artist vs Striker — Knockout Artist wins 54% historically
→Elo gap: +151(favors Strickland)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.1(favors Strickland)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.3(favors Costa)
MiddleweightHIT
Kevin Holland won by Submission (R1)
Holland 65%35% Oleksiejczuk
LEAN
All-Rounder vs Striker — All-Rounder wins 49% historically
→Elo gap: +146(favors Holland)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.8(favors Oleksiejczuk)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.1(favors Holland)
WelterweightMISS
Niko Price won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Price 28%72% Morono
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -268(favors Morono)
→Striking volume advantage: +2.9(favors Price)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.0(favors Price)
WelterweightHIT
Randy Brown won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Brown 69%31% Santos
CONFIDENT
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +128(favors Brown)
→Striking volume advantage: -0.2(favors Santos)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.2(favors Brown)
MiddleweightMISS
Roman Kopylov won by Decision - Split (R3)
Kopylov 44%56% Almeida
LEAN
→Elo gap: +70(favors Kopylov)
→Striking volume advantage: +1.9(favors Kopylov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +0.3(favors Kopylov)
HeavyweightHIT
Jailton Almeida won by Submission (R1)
Almeida 70%30% Romanov
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +132(favors Almeida)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Romanov)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.0(favors Almeida)
LightweightHIT
Grant Dawson won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Dawson 71%29% Solecki
CONFIDENT
Wrestler vs Wrestler — Wrestler wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: +222(favors Dawson)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.8(favors Dawson)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.6(favors Dawson)
WelterweightHIT
Jake Matthews won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Matthews 51%49% Rowe
TOSS-UP
All-Rounder vs All-Rounder — All-Rounder wins 50% historically
→Elo gap: -66(favors Rowe)
→Striking volume advantage: +0.5(favors Matthews)
→Takedown rate advantage: -0.7(favors Rowe)
WelterweightMISS
Bassil Hafez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Hafez 46%54% Gall
TOSS-UP
→Elo gap: +76(favors Hafez)
→Striking volume advantage: -1.6(favors Gall)
→Takedown rate advantage: +2.1(favors Hafez)
Women's BantamweightHIT
Ailin Perez won by Decision - Unanimous (R3)
Perez 53%47% Edwards
TOSS-UP
Wrestler vs All-Rounder — Wrestler wins 59% historically
→Elo gap: +44(favors Perez)
→Striking volume advantage: -2.0(favors Edwards)
→Takedown rate advantage: +3.7(favors Perez)
FlyweightMISS
Andre Lima won by Decision - Split (R3)
Lima 42%58% Raposo
LEAN
→Elo gap: -0(favors Raposo)
→Striking volume advantage: +3.8(favors Lima)
→Takedown rate advantage: +1.9(favors Lima)