UFC 34: High Voltage: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 34: High Voltage lands on Friday, November 2, 2001 in Las Vegas, Nevada, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Couture vs Pedro RizzoHeavyweight | Randy Couture | Confident | 70% |
| Ricco Rodriguez vs Pete WilliamsHeavyweight | Ricco Rodriguez | Strong | 78% |
| Matt Hughes vs Carlos NewtonWelterweight | Carlos Newton | Toss-up | 52% |
| BJ Penn vs Caol UnoLightweight | BJ Penn | Confident | 67% |
| Josh Barnett vs Bobby HoffmanHeavyweight | Josh Barnett | Strong | 77% |
| Evan Tanner vs Homer MooreLight Heavyweight | Evan Tanner | Confident | 70% |
| Matt Lindland vs Phil BaroniMiddleweight | Matt Lindland | Toss-up | 53% |
| Frank Mir vs Roberto TravenHeavyweight | Frank Mir | Confident | 69% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Randy Couture vs Pedro Rizzo
The Heavyweight matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Pedro Rizzo (8-5).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Couture at 1248, Rizzo at 1268. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
Stylistically this is Couture's wrestler game against Rizzo's striker approach. Couture looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Rizzo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Couture has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Randy Couture over Pedro Rizzo. We're leaning Couture here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Ricco Rodriguez vs Pete Williams
The Heavyweight matchup features Ricco Rodriguez (5-1) taking on Pete Williams (3-4).
Rodriguez is rated at 1157 — 304 points above Williams's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rodriguez throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Rodriguez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ricco Rodriguez over Pete Williams. The model is firm on this one: Rodriguez at 78%.
Matt Hughes vs Carlos Newton
The Welterweight matchup features Matt Hughes (18-6) taking on Carlos Newton (3-3).
Hughes is rated at 1273 — 250 points above Newton's 1023. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Hughes is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Newton looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Newton the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hughes throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hughes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Hughes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Carlos Newton over Matt Hughes. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Newton at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Penn at 938, Uno at 944. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
The style clash matters here: Penn is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Uno the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Penn throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Penn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Penn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: BJ Penn over Caol Uno. We're leaning Penn here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Josh Barnett vs Bobby Hoffman
The Heavyweight matchup features Josh Barnett (6-3) taking on Bobby Hoffman (0-1).
Barnett is rated at 1454 — 527 points above Hoffman's 927. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 1.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoffman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Barnett has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Barnett over Bobby Hoffman. The model is firm on this one: Barnett at 77%.
Evan Tanner vs Homer Moore
The Light Heavyweight matchup features Evan Tanner (11-5) taking on Homer Moore (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Tanner at 1034 versus Moore at 946. That 89-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Tanner is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Moore has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Evan Tanner over Homer Moore. We're leaning Tanner here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Matt Lindland vs Phil Baroni
The Middleweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Phil Baroni (3-6). Lindland is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 2-inch reach advantage.
Lindland is rated at 1239 — 477 points above Baroni's 762. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Lindland's wrestler game against Baroni's striker approach. Lindland looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Baroni brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Baroni throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Lindland is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.3 more per 15 minutes. Lindland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Matt Lindland over Phil Baroni. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lindland at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Frank Mir vs Roberto Traven
The Heavyweight matchup features Frank Mir (16-10) taking on Roberto Traven (1-0).
Mir is rated at 1252 — 274 points above Traven's 978. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Traven throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Traven is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Traven has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Mir over Roberto Traven. We're leaning Mir here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.