UFC 31: Locked and Loaded: Predictions & Analysis

The Heavyweight championship matchup features Randy Couture (16-7) taking on Pedro Rizzo (8-5).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Couture at 1248, Rizzo at 1268. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Couture rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Couture's submission artist game against Rizzo's striker approach. Couture is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Rizzo brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Couture throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Couture is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Randy Couture over Pedro Rizzo. The model gives Couture a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Carlos Newton (3-3) taking on Pat Miletich (8-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Miletich at 1150 versus Newton at 1023. That 127-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Newton throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Newton is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Miletich has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Carlos Newton over Pat Miletich. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Newton at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Chuck Liddell (16-6) taking on Kevin Randleman (3-3).

Randleman is rated at 1189 — 154 points above Liddell's 1035. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Liddell's striker game against Randleman's wrestler approach. Liddell brings a versatile approach, while Randleman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Liddell throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Randleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Liddell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chuck Liddell over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Liddell a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Shonie Carter (3-2) taking on Matt Serra (7-6).

Serra is rated at 1201 — 296 points above Carter's 905. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Carter brings a versatile approach, while Serra is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Serra the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Carter throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Carter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Serra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Shonie Carter over Matt Serra. We're leaning Carter here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Semmy Schilt (1-0) taking on Pete Williams (3-4).

Schilt is rated at 1034 — 181 points above Williams's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Schilt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Pete Williams over Semmy Schilt. We're leaning Williams here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Matt Lindland (8-3) taking on Ricardo Almeida (6-4).

Lindland carries a modest Elo edge (1239 to 1189), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lindland throws significantly more leather — a 5.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Almeida is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Almeida has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matt Lindland over Ricardo Almeida. The model gives Lindland a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features BJ Penn (12-12-2) taking on Joey Gilbert (0-0).

Penn carries a modest Elo edge (938 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gilbert throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gilbert is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gilbert has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joey Gilbert over BJ Penn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Gilbert at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Tony DeSouza (3-2) taking on Steve Berger (0-1).

DeSouza carries a modest Elo edge (878 to 845), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Berger throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Berger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Berger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tony DeSouza over Steve Berger. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward DeSouza at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.