UFC 30: Battle on the Boardwalk: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 30: Battle on the Boardwalk lands on Friday, February 23, 2001 in Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA with 8 bouts on the card. The card is headlined by a championship fight. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tito Ortiz vs Evan TannerMiddleweight | Tito Ortiz | Lean | 60% |
| Jens Pulver vs Caol UnoLightweight | Jens Pulver | Confident | 67% |
| Fabiano Iha vs Phil JohnsWelterweight | Fabiano Iha | Strong | 80% |
| Elvis Sinosic vs Jeremy HornMiddleweight | Jeremy Horn | Lean | 63% |
| Pedro Rizzo vs Josh BarnettHeavyweight | Josh Barnett | Toss-up | 54% |
| Bobby Hoffman vs Mark RobinsonHeavyweight | Bobby Hoffman | Confident | 73% |
| Phil Baroni vs Curtis StoutMiddleweight | Curtis Stout | Toss-up | 54% |
| Sean Sherk vs Tiki GhosnWelterweight | Sean Sherk | Toss-up | 52% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tito Ortiz vs Evan Tanner
The Middleweight matchup features Tito Ortiz (15-10-1) taking on Evan Tanner (11-5). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Ortiz.
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ortiz at 1059, Tanner at 1034. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Tanner throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Ortiz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Tanner has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tito Ortiz over Evan Tanner. The model gives Ortiz a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Jens Pulver vs Caol Uno
The Lightweight championship matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on Caol Uno (3-4-2).
Pulver is rated at 1133 — 189 points above Uno's 944. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
The style clash matters here: Pulver is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Uno looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Uno the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 3.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pulver is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Uno has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jens Pulver over Caol Uno. We're leaning Pulver here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Fabiano Iha vs Phil Johns
The Welterweight matchup features Fabiano Iha (3-3) taking on Phil Johns (0-0).
Johns carries a modest Elo edge (929 to 895), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Iha throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Iha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.3 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Fabiano Iha over Phil Johns. The model is firm on this one: Iha at 80%.
Elvis Sinosic vs Jeremy Horn
The Middleweight matchup features Elvis Sinosic (1-5) taking on Jeremy Horn (6-6). Sinosic is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 3-inch reach advantage.
There's a real Elo separation here: Horn at 936 versus Sinosic at 820. That 115-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
The style clash matters here: Sinosic looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Horn is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Sinosic the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.2 more per 15 minutes. Sinosic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Elvis Sinosic. The model gives Horn a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Pedro Rizzo vs Josh Barnett
The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Josh Barnett (6-3).
Barnett is rated at 1454 — 187 points above Rizzo's 1268. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
Stylistically this is Rizzo's striker game against Barnett's all-rounder approach. Rizzo brings a versatile approach, while Barnett is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.
A few statistical edges stand out. Barnett throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Barnett is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Josh Barnett over Pedro Rizzo. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barnett at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Bobby Hoffman vs Mark Robinson
The Heavyweight matchup features Bobby Hoffman (0-1) taking on Mark Robinson (0-0).
Robinson carries a modest Elo edge (1000 to 927), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Hoffman throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hoffman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.0 more per 15 minutes. Robinson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bobby Hoffman over Mark Robinson. We're leaning Hoffman here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Phil Baroni vs Curtis Stout
The Middleweight matchup features Phil Baroni (3-6) taking on Curtis Stout (0-1).
Stout carries a modest Elo edge (831 to 762), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Stout throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Stout is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Stout has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Curtis Stout over Phil Baroni. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Stout at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Sean Sherk vs Tiki Ghosn
The Welterweight matchup features Sean Sherk (7-4) taking on Tiki Ghosn (0-3).
Sherk is rated at 1371 — 678 points above Ghosn's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ghosn throws significantly more leather — a 3.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ghosn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Sherk has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Sean Sherk over Tiki Ghosn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Sherk at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.