UFC 24: First Defense: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 24: First Defense lands on Friday, March 10, 2000 in Lake Charles, Louisiana, USA with 7 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tedd Williams vs Steve JudsonHeavyweight | Tedd Williams | Lean | 58% |
| Lance Gibson vs Jermaine AndreMiddleweight | Jermaine Andre | Lean | 59% |
| Dave Menne vs Fabiano IhaLightweight | Dave Menne | Confident | 65% |
| Bob Cook vs Tiki GhosnLightweight | Bob Cook | Lean | 58% |
| Jens Pulver vs David VelasquezLightweight | Jens Pulver | Strong | 78% |
| Scott Adams vs Ian FreemanHeavyweight | Scott Adams | Lean | 58% |
| Shonie Carter vs Brad GummLightweight | Shonie Carter | Lean | 59% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Tedd Williams vs Steve Judson
The Heavyweight matchup features Tedd Williams (1-0) taking on Steve Judson (0-1).
Williams is rated at 981 — 223 points above Judson's 758. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Judson throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Judson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tedd Williams over Steve Judson. The model gives Williams a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Lance Gibson vs Jermaine Andre
The Middleweight matchup features Lance Gibson (1-0) taking on Jermaine Andre (0-0).
Gibson is rated at 1026 — 153 points above Andre's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Andre throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Andre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Andre has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jermaine Andre over Lance Gibson. The model gives Andre a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Dave Menne vs Fabiano Iha
The Lightweight matchup features Dave Menne (2-3) taking on Fabiano Iha (3-3).
There's a real Elo separation here: Iha at 895 versus Menne at 814. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.
A few statistical edges stand out. Iha throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Iha is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Menne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Dave Menne over Fabiano Iha. We're leaning Menne here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Bob Cook vs Tiki Ghosn
The Lightweight matchup features Bob Cook (0-0) taking on Tiki Ghosn (0-3).
Cook is rated at 1111 — 417 points above Ghosn's 694. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Ghosn throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ghosn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ghosn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bob Cook over Tiki Ghosn. The model gives Cook a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Jens Pulver vs David Velasquez
The Lightweight matchup features Jens Pulver (6-1-1) taking on David Velasquez (0-0).
Pulver is rated at 1133 — 260 points above Velasquez's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pulver throws significantly more leather — a 4.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Velasquez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Velasquez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jens Pulver over David Velasquez. The model is firm on this one: Pulver at 78%.
Scott Adams vs Ian Freeman
The Heavyweight matchup features Scott Adams (0-0) taking on Ian Freeman (3-2).
Adams carries a modest Elo edge (1111 to 1054), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Freeman throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Freeman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Freeman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Scott Adams over Ian Freeman. The model gives Adams a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Shonie Carter vs Brad Gumm
The Lightweight matchup features Shonie Carter (3-2) taking on Brad Gumm (0-1).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Carter at 905, Gumm at 925. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gumm throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gumm is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Gumm has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Shonie Carter over Brad Gumm. The model gives Carter a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.