UFC 21: Return of the Champions: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 21: Return of the Champions lands on Friday, July 16, 1999 in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, USA with 8 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Smith vs Marco RuasHeavyweight | Marco Ruas | Lean | 63% |
| Pat Miletich vs Andre PederneirasLightweight | Pat Miletich | Strong | 82% |
| Jeremy Horn vs Daiju TakaseMiddleweight | Jeremy Horn | Lean | 63% |
| Paul Jones vs Flavio Luiz MouraMiddleweight | Flavio Luiz Moura | Confident | 70% |
| Tsuyoshi Kohsaka vs Tim LajcikHeavyweight | Tsuyoshi Kohsaka | Confident | 73% |
| Eugene Jackson vs Royce AlgerMiddleweight | Eugene Jackson | Lean | 58% |
| Andre Roberts vs Ron WatermanHeavyweight | Ron Waterman | Strong | 79% |
| Travis Fulton vs David DoddHeavyweight | Travis Fulton | Lean | 60% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Maurice Smith vs Marco Ruas
The Heavyweight matchup features Maurice Smith (4-2) taking on Marco Ruas (4-1).
Smith carries a modest Elo edge (1155 to 1088), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
The style clash matters here: Smith is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Ruas is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against submission artists, giving Smith the stylistic edge.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marco Ruas over Maurice Smith. The model gives Ruas a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Pat Miletich vs Andre Pederneiras
The Lightweight matchup features Pat Miletich (8-1) taking on Andre Pederneiras (0-0).
Miletich is rated at 1150 — 197 points above Pederneiras's 953. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Miletich throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Miletich is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Pederneiras has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pat Miletich over Andre Pederneiras. The model is firm on this one: Miletich at 82%.
Jeremy Horn vs Daiju Takase
The Middleweight matchup features Jeremy Horn (6-6) taking on Daiju Takase (0-2).
There's a real Elo separation here: Horn at 936 versus Takase at 794. That 142-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Horn throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Horn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.5 more per 15 minutes. Takase has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jeremy Horn over Daiju Takase. The model gives Horn a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.
Paul Jones vs Flavio Luiz Moura
The Middleweight matchup features Paul Jones (1-0) taking on Flavio Luiz Moura (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Jones at 917, Moura at 890. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Moura throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Moura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Moura has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Flavio Luiz Moura over Paul Jones. We're leaning Moura here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Tsuyoshi Kohsaka vs Tim Lajcik
The Heavyweight matchup features Tsuyoshi Kohsaka (3-2) taking on Tim Lajcik (0-1-1).
Kohsaka is rated at 1014 — 184 points above Lajcik's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Kohsaka throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Kohsaka is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Lajcik has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Tsuyoshi Kohsaka over Tim Lajcik. We're leaning Kohsaka here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Eugene Jackson vs Royce Alger
The Middleweight matchup features Eugene Jackson (3-3) taking on Royce Alger (0-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Jackson at 882 versus Alger at 801. That 81-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Alger throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Alger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Eugene Jackson over Royce Alger. The model gives Jackson a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Andre Roberts vs Ron Waterman
The Heavyweight matchup features Andre Roberts (1-1) taking on Ron Waterman (1-1-1).
There's a real Elo separation here: Roberts at 1130 versus Waterman at 1032. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Waterman throws significantly more leather — a 12.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Waterman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 32.1 more per 15 minutes. Waterman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ron Waterman over Andre Roberts. The model is firm on this one: Waterman at 79%.
Travis Fulton vs David Dodd
The Heavyweight matchup features Travis Fulton (0-1) taking on David Dodd (0-1).
Fulton is rated at 1043 — 203 points above Dodd's 840. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Fulton throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Dodd is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Dodd has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Travis Fulton over David Dodd. The model gives Fulton a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.