UFC 20: Battle for the Gold: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 20: Battle for the Gold lands on Friday, May 7, 1999 in Birmingham, Alabama, USA with 7 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bas Rutten vs Kevin RandlemanHeavyweight | Bas Rutten | Lean | 55% |
| Pedro Rizzo vs Tra TelligmanHeavyweight | Pedro Rizzo | Strong | 82% |
| Pete Williams vs Travis FultonHeavyweight | Pete Williams | Confident | 74% |
| Wanderlei Silva vs Tony PetarraMiddleweight | Wanderlei Silva | Confident | 71% |
| Marcelo Mello vs David RobertsLightweight | Marcelo Mello | Lean | 58% |
| Laverne Clark vs Fabiano IhaLightweight | Laverne Clark | Strong | 81% |
| Ron Waterman vs Chris CondoHeavyweight | Ron Waterman | Lean | 61% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Bas Rutten vs Kevin Randleman
The Heavyweight matchup features Bas Rutten (1-0) taking on Kevin Randleman (3-3).
Rutten carries a modest Elo edge (1256 to 1189), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rutten throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Randleman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.5 more per 15 minutes. Rutten has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Bas Rutten over Kevin Randleman. The model gives Rutten a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.
Pedro Rizzo vs Tra Telligman
The Heavyweight matchup features Pedro Rizzo (8-5) taking on Tra Telligman (1-3).
Rizzo is rated at 1268 — 420 points above Telligman's 848. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rizzo throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Telligman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rizzo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pedro Rizzo over Tra Telligman. The model is firm on this one: Rizzo at 82%.
Pete Williams vs Travis Fulton
The Heavyweight matchup features Pete Williams (3-4) taking on Travis Fulton (0-1).
Fulton is rated at 1043 — 190 points above Williams's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Williams throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Fulton has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Pete Williams over Travis Fulton. We're leaning Williams here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Wanderlei Silva vs Tony Petarra
The Middleweight matchup features Wanderlei Silva (4-7) taking on Tony Petarra (0-0).
Silva is rated at 1282 — 423 points above Petarra's 859. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Petarra is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Petarra has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Wanderlei Silva over Tony Petarra. We're leaning Silva here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.
Marcelo Mello vs David Roberts
The Lightweight matchup features Marcelo Mello (0-0) taking on David Roberts (0-0).
Mello is rated at 1128 — 255 points above Roberts's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Roberts throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Roberts is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Roberts has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Marcelo Mello over David Roberts. The model gives Mello a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.
Laverne Clark vs Fabiano Iha
The Lightweight matchup features Laverne Clark (4-0) taking on Fabiano Iha (3-3).
Clark is rated at 1095 — 200 points above Iha's 895. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Clark rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Clark throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Clark is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Iha has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Laverne Clark over Fabiano Iha. The model is firm on this one: Clark at 81%.
Ron Waterman vs Chris Condo
The Heavyweight matchup features Ron Waterman (1-1-1) taking on Chris Condo (0-0).
Waterman is rated at 1032 — 160 points above Condo's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Condo throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Condo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Condo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Ron Waterman over Chris Condo. The model gives Waterman a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.