UFC - Ultimate Ultimate '95: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Severn at 1181, Taktarov at 1204. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.8 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Dan Severn. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Taktarov at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on Marco Ruas (4-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Taktarov at 1204 versus Ruas at 1088. That 116-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Taktarov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Ruas is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Taktarov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruas throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Marco Ruas. The model is firm on this one: Taktarov at 78%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on David Abbott (8-9).

Severn is rated at 1181 — 404 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Severn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Severn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Severn over David Abbott. We're leaning Severn here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Oleg Taktarov (4-1-1) taking on Dave Beneteau (2-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Taktarov at 1204 versus Beneteau at 1110. That 93-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Taktarov looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Beneteau is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Taktarov the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Beneteau throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Beneteau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.9 more per 15 minutes. Taktarov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oleg Taktarov over Dave Beneteau. The model is firm on this one: Taktarov at 83%.

The Open Weight matchup features Marco Ruas (4-1) taking on Keith Hackney (2-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ruas at 1088, Hackney at 1058. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hackney throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Ruas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Marco Ruas over Keith Hackney. The model is firm on this one: Ruas at 81%.

The Open Weight matchup features Dan Severn (9-3) taking on Paul Varelans (4-3).

Severn is rated at 1181 — 219 points above Varelans's 962. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severn throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Varelans is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Severn has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Dan Severn over Paul Varelans. We're leaning Severn here at 70%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features David Abbott (8-9) taking on Steve Jennum (2-0).

Jennum is rated at 1064 — 287 points above Abbott's 777. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Jennum throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Jennum is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.0 more per 15 minutes. Jennum has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: David Abbott over Steve Jennum. We're leaning Abbott here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Open Weight matchup features Mark Hall (3-2) taking on Trent Jenkins (0-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Hall at 1051 versus Jenkins at 904. That 147-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hall throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Jenkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Jenkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mark Hall over Trent Jenkins. The model is firm on this one: Hall at 77%.

The Open Weight matchup features Joe Charles (2-1) taking on Scott Bessac (1-0).

There's a real Elo separation here: Charles at 1076 versus Bessac at 981. That 95-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Bessac throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Bessac is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Charles has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joe Charles over Scott Bessac. The model is firm on this one: Charles at 76%.