UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez: Predictions & Analysis

The Flyweight matchup features Alex Perez (7-6) taking on Matheus Nicolau (7-3).

Perez is rated at 1293 — 260 points above Nicolau's 1033. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nicolau throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Nicolau is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Nicolau has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Matheus Nicolau over Alex Perez. The model gives Nicolau a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Bogdan Guskov (4-1) taking on Ryan Spann (8-6). Spann is the bigger frame at 6'5" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Guskov is rated at 1480 — 364 points above Spann's 1116. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Guskov rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Knockout Artist" archetype — precision strikers who sit back, pick their shots, and carry fight-ending power. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Spann throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Spann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Spann has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ryan Spann over Bogdan Guskov. We're leaning Spann here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Karine Silva (5-1) taking on Ariane da Silva (6-7).

Silva is rated at 1237 — 260 points above Silva's 976. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Silva's wrestler game against Silva's knockout artist approach. Silva looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Silva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.7 more per 15 minutes. Silva has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karine Silva over Ariane da Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Silva at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Jhonata Diniz (3-1) taking on Austen Lane (1-3).

Diniz is rated at 1031 — 247 points above Lane's 783. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lane throws significantly more leather — a 5.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Lane is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Diniz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jhonata Diniz over Austen Lane. The model gives Diniz a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features David Onama (6-2) taking on Jonathan Pearce (5-3). Onama will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Onama is rated at 1311 — 315 points above Pearce's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Onama rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Onama is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Pearce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Pearce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Onama throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.2 more per 15 minutes. Pearce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over David Onama. The model gives Pearce a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Uros Medic (6-3) taking on Tim Means (15-13). Means will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Medic is rated at 1484 — 611 points above Means's 872. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Medic's striker game against Means's all-rounder approach. Medic brings a versatile approach, while Means is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Means is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Medic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Tim Means. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Medic at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Victor Henry (3-2) taking on Rani Yahya (13-5-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Henry at 1135 versus Yahya at 1030. That 106-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Henry is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yahya looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Yahya the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Henry throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Yahya is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.9 more per 15 minutes. Yahya has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Victor Henry over Rani Yahya. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Henry at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Austin Hubbard (4-7) taking on Michal Figlak (0-1).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hubbard at 817, Figlak at 823. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hubbard throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Hubbard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.0 more per 15 minutes. Hubbard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michal Figlak over Austin Hubbard. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Figlak at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Don'Tale Mayes (4-6) taking on Caio Machado (0-2). Mayes is the bigger frame at 6'6" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Mayes carries a modest Elo edge (849 to 805), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Machado throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mayes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.4 more per 15 minutes. Machado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Don'Tale Mayes over Caio Machado. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Mayes at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Ketlen Souza (2-3) taking on Marnic Mann (0-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Souza.

Souza is rated at 1116 — 285 points above Mann's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mann throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Mann is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Souza has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ketlen Souza over Marnic Mann. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Souza at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Chris Padilla (3-0) taking on James Llontop (0-2). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Llontop.

Padilla is rated at 1301 — 483 points above Llontop's 818. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Padilla rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Llontop throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Llontop is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Llontop has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: James Llontop over Chris Padilla. The model gives Llontop a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Ivana Petrovic (1-2) taking on Liang Na (0-3). Petrovic is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Petrovic is rated at 788 — 198 points above Na's 590. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Na throws significantly more leather — a 0.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Na is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Petrovic has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Liang Na over Ivana Petrovic. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Na at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Maheshate (2-3) taking on Gabriel Benitez (7-7). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Maheshate.

Benitez carries a modest Elo edge (856 to 818), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

Stylistically this is Maheshate's striker game against Benitez's all-rounder approach. Maheshate brings a versatile approach, while Benitez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Benitez throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Benitez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Benitez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Maheshate over Gabriel Benitez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Maheshate at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.