UFC 3: The American Dream: Predictions & Analysis

The Open Weight matchup features Steve Jennum (2-0) taking on Harold Howard (1-1).

Jennum is rated at 1064 — 210 points above Howard's 854. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Howard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Howard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steve Jennum over Harold Howard. The model gives Jennum a slight nod at 62% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Felix Lee Mitchell (0-2).

Shamrock is rated at 1125 — 339 points above Mitchell's 786. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Mitchell throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Mitchell is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mitchell has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Felix Lee Mitchell. The model gives Shamrock a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-0-1) taking on Kimo Leopoldo (2-3).

Gracie is rated at 1310 — 271 points above Leopoldo's 1039. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Submission Artist" archetype — ground specialists who hunt for finishes off their back or from top position. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Leopoldo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Royce Gracie over Kimo Leopoldo. The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Open Weight matchup features Harold Howard (1-1) taking on Roland Payne (0-0).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Howard at 854, Payne at 828. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Howard throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Payne is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Payne has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Harold Howard over Roland Payne. The model is firm on this one: Howard at 92%.

The Open Weight matchup features Ken Shamrock (6-4-2) taking on Christophe Leninger (0-1).

Shamrock is rated at 1125 — 234 points above Leninger's 892. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Shamrock throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Shamrock is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.3 more per 15 minutes. Leninger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ken Shamrock over Christophe Leninger. The model is firm on this one: Shamrock at 93%.

The Open Weight matchup features Keith Hackney (2-1) taking on Emmanuel Yarborough (0-0).

Hackney is rated at 1058 — 185 points above Yarborough's 873. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yarborough throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yarborough is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Yarborough has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Emmanuel Yarborough over Keith Hackney. The model gives Yarborough a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.