UFC 2: No Way Out: Predictions & Analysis
UFC 2: No Way Out lands on Friday, March 11, 1994 in Denver, Colorado, USA with 15 bouts on the card. Below is our fight-by-fight breakdown, combining Elo ratings, rolling statistical trends, style matchup data, and betting market context into a pick for every bout.
Quick Picks
| Matchup | Pick | Confidence | Prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Royce Gracie vs Patrick SmithOpen Weight | Royce Gracie | Lean | 56% |
| Royce Gracie vs Remco PardoelOpen Weight | Royce Gracie | Strong | 87% |
| Patrick Smith vs Johnny RhodesOpen Weight | Patrick Smith | Strong | 91% |
| Royce Gracie vs Jason DeLuciaOpen Weight | Royce Gracie | Strong | 80% |
| Remco Pardoel vs Orlando WietOpen Weight | Remco Pardoel | Strong | 79% |
| Johnny Rhodes vs Fred EttishOpen Weight | Johnny Rhodes | Strong | 89% |
| Patrick Smith vs Scott MorrisOpen Weight | Patrick Smith | Strong | 94% |
| Royce Gracie vs Minoki IchiharaOpen Weight | Royce Gracie | Strong | 83% |
| Jason DeLucia vs Scott BakerOpen Weight | Jason DeLucia | Strong | 86% |
| Remco Pardoel vs Alberta Cerra LeonOpen Weight | Remco Pardoel | Strong | 94% |
| Orlando Wiet vs Robert LucarelliOpen Weight | Orlando Wiet | Strong | 91% |
| Frank Hamaker vs Thaddeus LusterOpen Weight | Frank Hamaker | Lean | 64% |
| Johnny Rhodes vs David LevickiOpen Weight | Johnny Rhodes | Strong | 93% |
| Patrick Smith vs Ray WizardOpen Weight | Patrick Smith | Strong | 94% |
| Scott Morris vs Sean DaughertyOpen Weight | Scott Morris | Strong | 86% |
Fight-by-Fight Breakdown
Royce Gracie vs Patrick Smith
The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-0-1) taking on Patrick Smith (3-1).
Gracie carries a modest Elo edge (1310 to 1260), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm. Smith has won 3 straight.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Smith is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Smith has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Royce Gracie over Patrick Smith. The model gives Gracie a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.
Royce Gracie vs Remco Pardoel
The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-0-1) taking on Remco Pardoel (2-1).
Gracie is rated at 1310 — 263 points above Pardoel's 1047. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.7 more per 15 minutes. Pardoel has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Royce Gracie over Remco Pardoel. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 87%.
Patrick Smith vs Johnny Rhodes
The Open Weight matchup features Patrick Smith (3-1) taking on Johnny Rhodes (0-0).
Smith is rated at 1260 — 410 points above Rhodes's 851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Smith rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Rhodes is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Rhodes has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Patrick Smith over Johnny Rhodes. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 91%.
Royce Gracie vs Jason DeLucia
The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-0-1) taking on Jason DeLucia (1-1).
Gracie is rated at 1310 — 390 points above DeLucia's 920. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 10.7 more per 15 minutes. DeLucia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Royce Gracie over Jason DeLucia. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 80%.
Remco Pardoel vs Orlando Wiet
The Open Weight matchup features Remco Pardoel (2-1) taking on Orlando Wiet (0-0).
Pardoel is rated at 1047 — 200 points above Wiet's 847. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiet throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Wiet is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wiet has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Remco Pardoel over Orlando Wiet. The model is firm on this one: Pardoel at 79%.
Johnny Rhodes vs Fred Ettish
The Open Weight matchup features Johnny Rhodes (0-0) taking on Fred Ettish (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rhodes at 851, Ettish at 845. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rhodes throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Ettish is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ettish has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Rhodes over Fred Ettish. The model is firm on this one: Rhodes at 89%.
Patrick Smith vs Scott Morris
The Open Weight matchup features Patrick Smith (3-1) taking on Scott Morris (0-1).
Smith is rated at 1260 — 380 points above Morris's 881. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Smith rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Morris is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Morris has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Patrick Smith over Scott Morris. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 94%.
Royce Gracie vs Minoki Ichihara
The Open Weight matchup features Royce Gracie (8-0-1) taking on Minoki Ichihara (0-0).
Gracie is rated at 1310 — 352 points above Ichihara's 958. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Gracie throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Gracie is far more active with takedowns, averaging 7.7 more per 15 minutes. Ichihara has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Royce Gracie over Minoki Ichihara. The model is firm on this one: Gracie at 83%.
Jason DeLucia vs Scott Baker
The Open Weight matchup features Jason DeLucia (1-1) taking on Scott Baker (0-0).
DeLucia carries a modest Elo edge (920 to 873), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.
A few statistical edges stand out. Baker throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. DeLucia is far more active with takedowns, averaging 13.4 more per 15 minutes. Baker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Jason DeLucia over Scott Baker. The model is firm on this one: DeLucia at 86%.
Remco Pardoel vs Alberta Cerra Leon
The Open Weight matchup features Remco Pardoel (2-1) taking on Alberta Cerra Leon (0-0).
There's a real Elo separation here: Pardoel at 1047 versus Leon at 915. That 132-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.
A few statistical edges stand out. Pardoel throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Pardoel is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.0 more per 15 minutes. Leon has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Remco Pardoel over Alberta Cerra Leon. The model is firm on this one: Pardoel at 94%.
Orlando Wiet vs Robert Lucarelli
The Open Weight matchup features Orlando Wiet (0-0) taking on Robert Lucarelli (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Wiet at 847, Lucarelli at 820. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Wiet throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lucarelli is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Lucarelli has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Orlando Wiet over Robert Lucarelli. The model is firm on this one: Wiet at 91%.
Frank Hamaker vs Thaddeus Luster
The Open Weight matchup features Frank Hamaker (0-0) taking on Thaddeus Luster (0-0).
Hamaker is rated at 1111 — 221 points above Luster's 890. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.
A few statistical edges stand out. Luster throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Luster is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Luster has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Frank Hamaker over Thaddeus Luster. The model gives Hamaker a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.
Johnny Rhodes vs David Levicki
The Open Weight matchup features Johnny Rhodes (0-0) taking on David Levicki (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Rhodes at 851, Levicki at 875. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Rhodes throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Levicki is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Levicki has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Johnny Rhodes over David Levicki. The model is firm on this one: Rhodes at 93%.
Patrick Smith vs Ray Wizard
The Open Weight matchup features Patrick Smith (3-1) taking on Ray Wizard (0-0).
Smith is rated at 1260 — 328 points above Wizard's 932. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Smith rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.
A few statistical edges stand out. Smith throws significantly more leather — a 6.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Wizard is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Wizard has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Patrick Smith over Ray Wizard. The model is firm on this one: Smith at 94%.
Scott Morris vs Sean Daugherty
The Open Weight matchup features Scott Morris (0-1) taking on Sean Daugherty (0-0).
The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Morris at 881, Daugherty at 853. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.
A few statistical edges stand out. Daugherty throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Daugherty is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Daugherty has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.
The Pick: Scott Morris over Sean Daugherty. The model is firm on this one: Morris at 86%.
Methodology
Predictions are generated by our ensemble model combining LightGBM (65%) and CatBoost (35%), trained on every UFC fight since 1994. The model uses 23 features including Elo ratings, rolling 5-fight statistical averages, style matchup history, physical attributes, and market odds when available.
On our held-out test set (402 fights from January-September 2023), the model achieves 63.4% accuracy with a log-loss of 0.626. High-confidence picks (>75% probability) hit at 82.7%. For full model transparency, visit our Model page.