UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Khamzat Chimaev (9-0-1) taking on Sean Strickland (17-7-1).

Chimaev is rated at 2079 — 227 points above Strickland's 1851. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Chimaev rides a 9-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Chimaev looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Strickland pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage. In our database, wrestlers own a 57% win rate against brawlers, giving Chimaev the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Strickland throws significantly more leather — a 3.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Chimaev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Strickland has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Khamzat Chimaev over Sean Strickland. We're leaning Chimaev here at 69%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Heavyweight matchup features Alexander Volkov (13-5-1) taking on Waldo Cortes Acosta (10-2-1). Volkov is the bigger frame at 6'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Volkov at 1845 versus Acosta at 1725. That 119-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results. Acosta has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Volkov's brawler game against Acosta's knockout artist approach. Volkov pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage, while Acosta is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Acosta throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkov is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Acosta has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Alexander Volkov over Waldo Cortes Acosta. The model gives Volkov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Jan Blachowicz (12-8-3) taking on Bogdan Guskov (4-1-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Blachowicz at 1694 versus Guskov at 1607. That 87-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "Brawler" archetype — aggressive fighters who push forward, throw volume, and look to overwhelm opponents in exchanges. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Guskov throws significantly more leather — a 1.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Blachowicz is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Blachowicz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bogdan Guskov over Jan Blachowicz. The model gives Guskov a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Ateba Gautier (4-0-1) taking on Ozzy Diaz (1-1-1).

Gautier is rated at 1313 — 205 points above Diaz's 1108. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Gautier rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Diaz throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Gautier is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Diaz has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ateba Gautier over Ozzy Diaz. We're leaning Gautier here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Sean Brady (8-2-2) taking on Joaquin Buckley (11-5-2). Buckley will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Brady at 1754, Buckley at 1750. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

The style clash matters here: Brady looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Buckley pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage. In our database, wrestlers own a 57% win rate against brawlers, giving Brady the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buckley throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Brady is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.1 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Joaquin Buckley over Sean Brady. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Buckley at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features King Green (15-12-2) taking on Jeremy Stephens (15-19-1).

Green is rated at 1353 — 222 points above Stephens's 1131. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Green's brawler game against Stephens's knockout artist approach. Green pushes forward relentlessly, throwing volume and pressuring opponents against the cage, while Stephens is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Green throws significantly more leather — a 4.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Green is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Green has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: King Green over Jeremy Stephens. We're leaning Green here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Flyweight matchup features Clayton Carpenter (2-2-1) taking on Jose Ochoa (1-2-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Ochoa at 1068 versus Carpenter at 984. That 84-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ochoa throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Carpenter is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Ochoa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Ochoa over Clayton Carpenter. The model gives Ochoa a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.