UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Manon Fiorot (7-1) taking on Erin Blanchfield (7-1). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Fiorot.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Fiorot at 1641, Blanchfield at 1631. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Fiorot's striker game against Blanchfield's wrestler approach. Fiorot brings a versatile approach, while Blanchfield looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Fiorot throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Blanchfield is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Fiorot has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Erin Blanchfield over Manon Fiorot. The model gives Blanchfield a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Joaquin Buckley (11-4) taking on Vicente Luque (16-7).

Buckley is rated at 1728 — 478 points above Luque's 1250. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Buckley rides a 6-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Buckley's striker game against Luque's all-rounder approach. Buckley brings a versatile approach, while Luque is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Luque throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Luque is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Buckley has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Vicente Luque over Joaquin Buckley. The model gives Luque a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Chris Weidman (12-7) taking on Bruno Silva (4-6). Weidman is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Weidman is rated at 1060 — 262 points above Silva's 798. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Weidman's wrestler game against Silva's striker approach. Weidman looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Silva brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Silva throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Weidman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Weidman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Weidman over Bruno Silva. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Weidman at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Nursulton Ruziboev (3-1) taking on Sedriques Dumas (3-3). Dumas will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Ruziboev is rated at 1327 — 510 points above Dumas's 817. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ruziboev throws significantly more leather — a 2.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Ruziboev is far more active with takedowns, averaging 11.3 more per 15 minutes. Dumas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nursulton Ruziboev over Sedriques Dumas. The model gives Ruziboev a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Kyle Nelson (4-5-1) taking on Bill Algeo (5-4).

Nelson is rated at 1271 — 357 points above Algeo's 914. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Nelson's striker game against Algeo's all-rounder approach. Nelson brings a versatile approach, while Algeo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Algeo throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Algeo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Nelson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Bill Algeo over Kyle Nelson. The model gives Algeo a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Chidi Njokuani (5-4) taking on Rhys McKee (1-4).

Njokuani is rated at 1083 — 230 points above McKee's 853. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Njokuani's all-rounder game against McKee's striker approach. Njokuani is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while McKee brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKee throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. McKee is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Njokuani has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chidi Njokuani over Rhys McKee. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Njokuani at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Nate Landwehr (5-4) taking on Jamall Emmers (4-4).

Emmers is rated at 1177 — 198 points above Landwehr's 979. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Landwehr looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Emmers is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Landwehr the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Landwehr throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Emmers is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Emmers has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Nate Landwehr over Jamall Emmers. The model gives Landwehr a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Virna Jandiroba (8-3) taking on Loopy Godinez (8-5). Jandiroba will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

Jandiroba is rated at 1457 — 196 points above Godinez's 1260. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Jandiroba rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Jandiroba's wrestler game against Godinez's knockout artist approach. Jandiroba looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Godinez is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Godinez throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Jandiroba is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Godinez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Loopy Godinez over Virna Jandiroba. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Godinez at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Julio Arce (5-4) taking on Herbert Burns (2-3). Burns is the bigger frame at 5'9" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Arce is rated at 1167 — 397 points above Burns's 770. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Arce is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Burns is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, submission artists own a 56% win rate against all-rounders, giving Burns the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Arce throws significantly more leather — a 2.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Burns is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Arce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Julio Arce over Herbert Burns. The model gives Arce a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Dennis Buzukja (1-2) taking on Connor Matthews (0-2).

Buzukja is rated at 918 — 212 points above Matthews's 706. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Buzukja throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Connor Matthews over Dennis Buzukja. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Matthews at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Ibo Aslan (2-2) taking on Anton Turkalj (0-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Aslan at 828 versus Turkalj at 726. That 103-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Turkalj throws significantly more leather — a 1.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Turkalj is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.5 more per 15 minutes. Aslan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ibo Aslan over Anton Turkalj. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Aslan at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Jacob Malkoun (4-3) taking on Andre Petroski (8-3). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Petroski.

Malkoun is rated at 1322 — 354 points above Petroski's 967. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Malkoun looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Petroski is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Malkoun the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Malkoun throws significantly more leather — a 0.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Malkoun is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.8 more per 15 minutes. Petroski has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jacob Malkoun over Andre Petroski. The model gives Malkoun a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Caolan Loughran (1-2) taking on Angel Pacheco (0-0). Pacheco is the bigger frame at 5'8" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Loughran at 1041 versus Pacheco at 903. That 138-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Loughran throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Loughran is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.0 more per 15 minutes. Pacheco has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Angel Pacheco over Caolan Loughran. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Pacheco at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.