UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas: Predictions & Analysis

The Women's Flyweight championship matchup features Rose Namajunas (12-6) taking on Amanda Ribas (7-5).

Namajunas is rated at 1421 — 374 points above Ribas's 1048. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribas is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Namajunas has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rose Namajunas over Amanda Ribas. The model gives Namajunas a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Heavyweight matchup features Karl Williams (3-0) taking on Justin Tafa (4-4). Williams is the bigger frame at 6'3" with a 5-inch reach advantage.

Williams is rated at 1106 — 168 points above Tafa's 938. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Williams rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tafa throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Williams is far more active with takedowns, averaging 4.5 more per 15 minutes. Williams has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Karl Williams over Justin Tafa. We're leaning Williams here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Middleweight matchup features Edmen Shahbazyan (8-5) taking on AJ Dobson (1-2).

Shahbazyan is rated at 1314 — 478 points above Dobson's 836. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dobson throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Dobson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Dobson has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Edmen Shahbazyan over AJ Dobson. The model gives Shahbazyan a slight nod at 63% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Payton Talbott (4-1) taking on Cameron Saaiman (3-2). Talbott is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Talbott is rated at 1414 — 545 points above Saaiman's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saaiman throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Saaiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Talbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Payton Talbott. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saaiman at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Youssef Zalal (7-3-1) taking on Billy Quarantillo (6-4).

Zalal is rated at 1532 — 567 points above Quarantillo's 965. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Zalal rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Zalal looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Quarantillo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Zalal the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quarantillo throws significantly more leather — a 5.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Zalal is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.5 more per 15 minutes. Zalal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Billy Quarantillo over Youssef Zalal. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Quarantillo at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Fernando Padilla (2-1) taking on Luis Pajuelo (0-0). Padilla is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Padilla is rated at 1083 — 176 points above Pajuelo's 907. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Padilla throws significantly more leather — a 5.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Pajuelo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Pajuelo has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Fernando Padilla over Luis Pajuelo. The model gives Padilla a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Trey Ogden (3-2) taking on Kurt Holobaugh (2-6).

Ogden is rated at 1077 — 244 points above Holobaugh's 833. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Holobaugh throws significantly more leather — a 1.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trey Ogden over Kurt Holobaugh. We're leaning Ogden here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Featherweight matchup features Julian Erosa (9-7) taking on Ricardo Ramos (8-6). Erosa is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

Erosa is rated at 1280 — 452 points above Ramos's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Erosa rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Erosa is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Ramos looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Ramos the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Erosa throws significantly more leather — a 4.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Ramos is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.7 more per 15 minutes. Ramos has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ricardo Ramos over Julian Erosa. The model gives Ramos a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Miles Johns (6-4) taking on Cody Gibson (3-6). Gibson is the bigger frame at 5'10" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

Johns is rated at 1044 — 201 points above Gibson's 843. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Johns's striker game against Gibson's all-rounder approach. Johns brings a versatile approach, while Gibson is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gibson throws significantly more leather — a 1.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Gibson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Johns has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miles Johns over Cody Gibson. The model gives Johns a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Jarno Errens (1-2) taking on Steven Nguyen (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nguyen at 970 versus Errens at 872. That 98-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Errens throws significantly more leather — a 1.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Nguyen is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Nguyen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Steven Nguyen over Jarno Errens. The model gives Nguyen a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Daria Zhelezniakova (1-1) taking on Montse Rendon (1-1).

Zhelezniakova carries a modest Elo edge (1111 to 1051), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Rendon throws significantly more leather — a 4.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Rendon is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.0 more per 15 minutes. Zhelezniakova has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Montse Rendon over Daria Zhelezniakova. The model gives Rendon a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Flyweight matchup features Andre Lima (3-0) taking on Igor Severino (0-0).

Lima is rated at 1207 — 207 points above Severino's 1000. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Lima rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Severino throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Severino is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Severino has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Lima over Igor Severino. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lima at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mick Parkin (4-0) taking on Mohammed Usman (3-2).

Parkin is rated at 1239 — 152 points above Usman's 1087. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Parkin rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parkin throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Parkin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Parkin has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mick Parkin over Mohammed Usman. The model gives Parkin a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.