UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight matchup features Ilia Topuria (8-0) taking on Alexander Volkanovski (14-3).

Topuria is rated at 2094 — 270 points above Volkanovski's 1824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Topuria rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Topuria is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Volkanovski brings a versatile approach. In our database, knockout artists own a 54% win rate against strikers, giving Topuria the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Volkanovski throws significantly more leather — a 0.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Volkanovski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Topuria has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ilia Topuria over Alexander Volkanovski. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Topuria at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Middleweight matchup features Robert Whittaker (17-6) taking on Paulo Costa (6-4).

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Whittaker at 1528, Costa at 1513. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Costa throws significantly more leather — a 1.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Whittaker is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Whittaker has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Robert Whittaker over Paulo Costa. We're leaning Whittaker here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Welterweight matchup features Ian Machado Garry (9-1) taking on Geoff Neal (8-5). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Garry.

Garry is rated at 1787 — 541 points above Neal's 1247. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Garry's striker game against Neal's all-rounder approach. Garry brings a versatile approach, while Neal is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Garry throws significantly more leather — a 2.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Garry is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Neal has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ian Machado Garry over Geoff Neal. We're leaning Garry here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Merab Dvalishvili (14-2) taking on Henry Cejudo (10-5). Dvalishvili is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Dvalishvili is rated at 1867 — 451 points above Cejudo's 1416. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Dvalishvili rides a 14-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Dvalishvili looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Cejudo is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Dvalishvili the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dvalishvili throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Dvalishvili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.6 more per 15 minutes. Dvalishvili has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Merab Dvalishvili over Henry Cejudo. The model gives Dvalishvili a slight nod at 65% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Anthony Hernandez (9-2) taking on Roman Kopylov (6-4).

Hernandez is rated at 1602 — 326 points above Kopylov's 1277. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Hernandez rides a 8-fight win streak into this one.

Stylistically this is Hernandez's submission artist game against Kopylov's striker approach. Hernandez is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Kopylov brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Kopylov throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Hernandez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 6.7 more per 15 minutes. Kopylov has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Anthony Hernandez over Roman Kopylov. The model gives Hernandez a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Lemos (9-4) taking on Mackenzie Dern (10-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Dern at 1472 versus Lemos at 1335. That 136-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Lemos's knockout artist game against Dern's wrestler approach. Lemos is patient on the feet, timing counters and loading up when he sees openings, while Dern looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Dern throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Dern is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Dern has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Lemos over Mackenzie Dern. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lemos at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Heavyweight matchup features Marcos Rogerio de Lima (10-7) taking on Junior Tafa (2-4).

Lima is rated at 1275 — 447 points above Tafa's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Stylistically this is Lima's all-rounder game against Tafa's striker approach. Lima is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Tafa brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lima throws significantly more leather — a 2.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Lima is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.8 more per 15 minutes. Tafa has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Junior Tafa over Marcos Rogerio de Lima. We're leaning Tafa here at 66%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Bantamweight matchup features Rinya Nakamura (3-1) taking on Carlos Vera (0-1).

There's a real Elo separation here: Nakamura at 1183 versus Vera at 1076. That 107-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Nakamura throws significantly more leather — a 3.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Nakamura is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.9 more per 15 minutes. Vera has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Rinya Nakamura over Carlos Vera. We're leaning Nakamura here at 73%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Light Heavyweight matchup features Zhang Mingyang (3-0) taking on Brendson Ribeiro (2-3). Ribeiro will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Mingyang is rated at 1188 — 265 points above Ribeiro's 923. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Mingyang rides a 3-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribeiro throws significantly more leather — a 0.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Ribeiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Ribeiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendson Ribeiro over Zhang Mingyang. The model gives Ribeiro a slight nod at 57% — this could easily go either way.

The Welterweight matchup features Danny Barlow (2-1) taking on Josh Quinlan (1-2). Barlow is the bigger frame at 6'2" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Barlow carries a modest Elo edge (895 to 825), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Quinlan throws significantly more leather — a 3.1 sig. strike per minute gap. Quinlan is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.9 more per 15 minutes. Barlow has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Danny Barlow over Josh Quinlan. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Barlow at 51%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Oban Elliott (3-1) taking on Val Woodburn (0-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Elliott.

Elliott is rated at 997 — 167 points above Woodburn's 831. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Woodburn throws significantly more leather — a 3.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Woodburn is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Elliott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Oban Elliott over Val Woodburn. We're leaning Elliott here at 65%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Miranda Maverick (8-3) taking on Andrea Lee (5-8). Lee is the bigger frame at 5'6" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

Maverick is rated at 1264 — 400 points above Lee's 864. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Maverick rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Maverick looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Lee is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Maverick the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lee throws significantly more leather — a 0.8 sig. strike per minute gap. Maverick is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Lee has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Miranda Maverick over Andrea Lee. We're leaning Maverick here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.