UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig: Predictions & Analysis

The Middleweight matchup features Brendan Allen (13-4) taking on Paul Craig (9-9-1).

Allen is rated at 1696 — 651 points above Craig's 1045. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Allen throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Craig is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Allen has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Brendan Allen over Paul Craig. The model is firm on this one: Allen at 81%.

The Welterweight matchup features Michael Morales (6-0) taking on Jake Matthews (15-7). Morales will look to use a 6-inch reach edge to control distance.

Morales is rated at 1853 — 558 points above Matthews's 1295. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Both fighters bring momentum: Morales rides a 6-fight win streak into this one, while Matthews has won 3 straight.

Stylistically this is Morales's striker game against Matthews's all-rounder approach. Morales brings a versatile approach, while Matthews is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Morales throws significantly more leather — a 2.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Matthews is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Matthews has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Michael Morales over Jake Matthews. The model gives Morales a slight nod at 64% — this could easily go either way.

The Lightweight matchup features Chase Hooper (8-3) taking on Jordan Leavitt (5-3). Hooper is the bigger frame at 6'1" with a 3-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Hooper at 1175, Leavitt at 1198. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets. Hooper rides a 5-fight win streak into this one.

The style clash matters here: Hooper is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Leavitt looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Leavitt the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Hooper throws significantly more leather — a 2.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Hooper is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Leavitt has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chase Hooper over Jordan Leavitt. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Hooper at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Payton Talbott (4-1) taking on Nick Aguirre (0-1). Aguirre will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Talbott is rated at 1414 — 590 points above Aguirre's 824. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Aguirre throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Aguirre is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Talbott has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Payton Talbott over Nick Aguirre. The model gives Talbott a slight nod at 56% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Amanda Ribas (7-5) taking on Luana Pinheiro (3-3). Ribas is the bigger frame at 5'4" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

There's a real Elo separation here: Ribas at 1048 versus Pinheiro at 914. That 134-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ribas throws significantly more leather — a 0.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Pinheiro is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.8 more per 15 minutes. Pinheiro has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Amanda Ribas over Luana Pinheiro. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ribas at 54%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Welterweight matchup features Myktybek Orolbai (3-1) taking on Uros Medic (6-3). Orolbai will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

There's a real Elo separation here: Medic at 1484 versus Orolbai at 1374. That 109-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Medic throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Medic is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.6 more per 15 minutes. Orolbai has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Uros Medic over Myktybek Orolbai. The model gives Medic a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Featherweight matchup features Joanderson Brito (5-3) taking on Jonathan Pearce (5-3). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Pearce.

Brito is rated at 1283 — 288 points above Pearce's 996. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Brito is most dangerous on the ground, constantly threatening chokes and joint locks, while Pearce looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 56% win rate against submission artists, giving Pearce the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pearce throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Pearce is far more active with takedowns, averaging 2.4 more per 15 minutes. Pearce has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Pearce over Joanderson Brito. The model gives Pearce a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jose Johnson (1-2) taking on Chad Anheliger (2-2). Johnson is the bigger frame at 6'0" with a 7-inch reach advantage.

Anheliger carries a modest Elo edge (892 to 862), the kind of gap that reflects a slightly better run of form rather than a talent chasm.

A few statistical edges stand out. Anheliger throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Anheliger is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Anheliger has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jose Johnson over Chad Anheliger. The model gives Johnson a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Christian Leroy Duncan (5-2) taking on Denis Tiuliulin (1-4).

Duncan is rated at 1424 — 668 points above Tiuliulin's 756. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Tiuliulin throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Tiuliulin is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Duncan has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Christian Leroy Duncan over Denis Tiuliulin. The model is firm on this one: Duncan at 77%.

The Heavyweight matchup features Mick Parkin (4-0) taking on Caio Machado (0-2).

Parkin is rated at 1239 — 434 points above Machado's 805. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Parkin rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

A few statistical edges stand out. Parkin throws significantly more leather — a 6.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Machado is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Machado has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Mick Parkin over Caio Machado. The model is firm on this one: Parkin at 76%.

The Featherweight matchup features Jeka Saragih (1-2) taking on Lucas Alexander (1-2). Alexander is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Saragih at 797, Alexander at 776. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alexander throws significantly more leather — a 3.5 sig. strike per minute gap. Alexander is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Alexander has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Lucas Alexander over Jeka Saragih. We're leaning Alexander here at 71%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Ailin Perez (4-1) taking on Lucie Pudilova (3-7). There's a 3-inch height gap favoring Pudilova.

Perez is rated at 1291 — 488 points above Pudilova's 803. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents. Perez rides a 4-fight win streak into this one.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Perez throws significantly more leather — a 0.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Perez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 5.4 more per 15 minutes. Perez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Ailin Perez over Lucie Pudilova. We're leaning Perez here at 74%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Lightweight matchup features Trey Ogden (3-2) taking on Nikolas Motta (3-2). Ogden is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Ogden at 1077, Motta at 1072. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Stylistically this is Ogden's wrestler game against Motta's striker approach. Ogden looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Motta brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Motta throws significantly more leather — a 0.7 sig. strike per minute gap. Ogden is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.7 more per 15 minutes. Ogden has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Trey Ogden over Nikolas Motta. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Ogden at 52%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Flyweight matchup features Rafael Estevam (2-0) taking on Charles Johnson (7-5).

There's a real Elo separation here: Estevam at 1237 versus Johnson at 1097. That 139-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

A few statistical edges stand out. Johnson throws significantly more leather — a 4.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Johnson is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.2 more per 15 minutes. Estevam has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Charles Johnson over Rafael Estevam. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Johnson at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.