UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza: Predictions & Analysis

The Featherweight championship matchup features Edson Barboza (18-13) taking on Sodiq Yusuff (6-3). Barboza is the bigger frame at 5'11" with a 4-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Barboza at 1142, Yusuff at 1113. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yusuff throws significantly more leather — a 1.0 sig. strike per minute gap. Yusuff is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.3 more per 15 minutes. Yusuff has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Sodiq Yusuff over Edson Barboza. We're leaning Yusuff here at 67%, a solid but not overwhelming edge.

The Women's Flyweight matchup features Viviane Araujo (7-5) taking on Jennifer Maia (6-5). Araujo will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Araujo at 1207, Maia at 1193. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

Both fighters land in our "All-Rounder" archetype — fighters comfortable everywhere, able to strike or grapple depending on what the opponent gives them. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Maia throws significantly more leather — a 1.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Araujo is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.6 more per 15 minutes. Maia has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araujo. The model gives Maia a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Jonathan Martinez (10-4) taking on Adrian Yanez (6-2).

There's a real Elo separation here: Martinez at 1343 versus Yanez at 1203. That 140-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

Stylistically this is Martinez's all-rounder game against Yanez's striker approach. Martinez is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Yanez brings a versatile approach. Historically these archetypes are dead-even when they collide.

A few statistical edges stand out. Yanez throws significantly more leather — a 1.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Martinez is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.4 more per 15 minutes. Yanez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Jonathan Martinez over Adrian Yanez. The model gives Martinez a slight nod at 60% — this could easily go either way.

The Middleweight matchup features Michel Pereira (9-5) taking on Andre Petroski (8-3).

There's a real Elo separation here: Pereira at 1113 versus Petroski at 967. That 145-point gap typically reflects a meaningful difference in recent quality of competition and results.

The style clash matters here: Pereira is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear, while Petroski looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Petroski the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Pereira throws significantly more leather — a 2.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Petroski is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.1 more per 15 minutes. Pereira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Andre Petroski over Michel Pereira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Petroski at 53%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Bantamweight matchup features Christian Rodriguez (5-3) taking on Cameron Saaiman (3-2). Rodriguez will look to use a 4-inch reach edge to control distance.

Rodriguez is rated at 1041 — 172 points above Saaiman's 869. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

The style clash matters here: Rodriguez looks to close distance and put the fight on the mat, while Saaiman is comfortable adjusting on the fly, mixing strikes and grappling as openings appear. In our database, wrestlers own a 59% win rate against all-rounders, giving Rodriguez the stylistic edge.

A few statistical edges stand out. Saaiman throws significantly more leather — a 3.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Saaiman is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.1 more per 15 minutes. Saaiman has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Cameron Saaiman over Christian Rodriguez. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Saaiman at 50%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Featherweight matchup features Darren Elkins (19-10) taking on TJ Brown (3-4).

Elkins is rated at 1113 — 236 points above Brown's 876. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Wrestler" archetype — fighters who win by dictating where the fight takes place, grinding out control time and wearing opponents down. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Brown throws significantly more leather — a 0.4 sig. strike per minute gap. Elkins is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.5 more per 15 minutes. Elkins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Darren Elkins over TJ Brown. The model gives Elkins a slight nod at 58% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Tainara Lisboa (2-1) taking on Ravena Oliveira (0-1). Lisboa is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 2-inch reach advantage.

The Elo gap here is razor-thin — Lisboa at 876, Oliveira at 848. On paper, this is as close to a coin flip as it gets.

A few statistical edges stand out. Lisboa throws significantly more leather — a 2.9 sig. strike per minute gap. Lisboa is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.1 more per 15 minutes. Oliveira has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Tainara Lisboa over Ravena Oliveira. This is essentially a pick'em. The model nudges toward Lisboa at 55%, but there's almost nothing separating these two.

The Lightweight matchup features Terrance McKinney (7-4) taking on Brendon Marotte (0-1). McKinney will look to use a 3-inch reach edge to control distance.

McKinney is rated at 1110 — 282 points above Marotte's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. McKinney throws significantly more leather — a 5.1 sig. strike per minute gap. McKinney is far more active with takedowns, averaging 3.7 more per 15 minutes. Marotte has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Terrance McKinney over Brendon Marotte. The model gives McKinney a slight nod at 61% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Bantamweight matchup features Melissa Mullins (2-1) taking on Irina Alekseeva (1-2).

Mullins is rated at 1006 — 178 points above Alekseeva's 828. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Alekseeva throws significantly more leather — a 8.2 sig. strike per minute gap. Alekseeva is far more active with takedowns, averaging 0.0 more per 15 minutes. Mullins has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Irina Alekseeva over Melissa Mullins. The model gives Alekseeva a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.

The Bantamweight matchup features Chris Gutierrez (10-3-1) taking on Alatengheili (5-2-1). There's a 4-inch height gap favoring Gutierrez.

Gutierrez is rated at 1298 — 168 points above Alatengheili's 1129. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

Both fighters land in our "Striker" archetype — fighters with a well-rounded skill set. When mirror matchups like this happen, the edge usually goes to whoever can impose their preferred pace and range.

A few statistical edges stand out. Gutierrez throws significantly more leather — a 2.3 sig. strike per minute gap. Alatengheili is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Gutierrez has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Chris Gutierrez over Alatengheili. The model gives Gutierrez a slight nod at 59% — this could easily go either way.

The Women's Strawweight matchup features Emily Ducote (2-2) taking on Ashley Yoder (3-7). Yoder is the bigger frame at 5'7" with a 6-inch reach advantage.

Ducote is rated at 952 — 187 points above Yoder's 766. Gaps this large usually mean one fighter has been consistently beating better opponents.

A few statistical edges stand out. Ducote throws significantly more leather — a 3.6 sig. strike per minute gap. Yoder is far more active with takedowns, averaging 1.2 more per 15 minutes. Ducote has tighter striking defense, making opponents miss more often.

The Pick: Emily Ducote over Ashley Yoder. The model gives Ducote a slight nod at 55% — this could easily go either way.