About Haymaker
Independent MMA analytics powered by machine learning.
What we do
Haymaker predicts the outcome of every UFC fight using a gradient-boosted ensemble model (LightGBM + CatBoost) trained on every UFC bout since 1994. We combine Elo ratings, style classification, rolling performance metrics, and 23+ engineered features to generate win probabilities, method predictions, and confidence tiers for every matchup.
We believe fight analysis should be transparent and data-driven. That means showing our methodology, publishing our accuracy, and being honest about what the model gets wrong.
How it works
Every UFC result, round-level stat, and judge scorecard is scraped from UFCStats.com and stored in our database. Updated after every event.
A LightGBM + CatBoost ensemble processes Elo ratings, style matchups, striking/grappling stats, and betting odds to predict fight outcomes.
We publish our test accuracy (65.2%), calibration curves, feature importance, and per-event results. No black boxes.
Track record
Tested on 1,605 fights from 2023-2026. High-confidence picks (>72% model probability) hit at 81.3%. Full methodology and calibration data.
Data sources
- Fight results, stats, and fighter details from UFCStats.com
- Historical betting odds from BestFightOdds.com
- Elo ratings computed using an adaptive K-factor system
- Style classification via K-means clustering on performance metrics
Disclaimer
Haymaker is an independent analytics platform. We are not affiliated with the UFC, ESPN, or any sportsbook. All predictions are for entertainment and informational purposes only and do not constitute gambling advice. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit ncpgambling.org.
Contact
Questions, feedback, or partnership inquiries: contact@haymaker.gg